• 责任者：Zhang Guiming (Qingdao Technological University ; Qingdao 266033 ; China) ; Liu Wenfeng
• 刊名：Earthquake Research in China
• 出版年：2013
• 卷期：29(4)
• 关键词：地震预测 ; earthquake prediction
• 页码：p.528-536
• 图表：4 tables, 34 refs.
• 分类号：0500
• issnNo：ISSN1001-4683
• isbnNo：CN11-2008/P

     45 cases of earthquake forecast/prediction at home and abroad were verified and collected.Methods of long-term earthquake prediction,short-term precursor information and results of earthquake prediction are discussed and analyzed.Research shows that the probability of completely accurate earthquake prediction which must include time,place,and magnitude of earthquake is low and most cases are relatively rough prediction of three elements of earthquake.It is rather difficult to achieve accurate forecast at present all over the world.Chinese researchers pay more attention to observation of short-term precursor in the process of earthquake forecast.Of all these short-term precursor methods which include abnormal weak seismic activity,chemical components of groundwater,underground water conditions,terrestrial magnetism,terrestrial electricity,crustal inclination,in-situ stress and strain,electromagnetic wave and quiet process of small shocks before earthquake,the method of abnormal weak seismic activity before earthquake has higher probability of forecasting earthquake successfully,and should be one of indexes of forecasting some earthquakes.Most cases of foreign countries are the long-term prediction of earthquake with the view to preventive strategies.Foreign countries have purposed more theories and methods of long-term earthquake prediction than China.