Intermediate-Term Medium-Range Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Priori to the 2010 Yushu M_S7.1 Earthquake

详细信息   

• 责任者：Jiang Changsheng (Institute of Geophysics ; China Earthquake Administration ; Beijing 100081 ; China) ; Wu Zhongliang
• 刊名：Chinese Journal of Geophysics
• 出版年：2011
• 卷期：54(6)
• 关键词：玉树地震2010 ; Yushu earthquake 2010
• 页码：p.1501-1510
• 图表：8 illus., 27 refs.
• 分类号：0500
• issnNo：ISSN0001-5733
• isbnNo：CN11-2074/P

摘要

Investigation of the accelerating moment release (AMR) phenomena plays an important role in understanding the preparation process of  Yushu M_S7.1 earthquake, April 14, 2010, with implications to time-dependent seismic hazard assessment or intermediate-term medium-rage earthquake forecast. Considering the debates related to AMR study, the authors investigate the distribution of m value, the exponent in the power-law-like ’time-to-failure’ function describing the moment release, in the (T-R-M_c) space, where T and R are the scales of temporal and spatial window, respectively, and M_c is the cutoff magnitude of earthquake catalogue in use. The failure time and center of the spatial range were fixed at the origin time and the epicenter of the mainshock. Stable pre-shock AMR can be observed at the time scale T=10～20y and spatial range R=50～120 km. Using the “migration pattern” method, it can be found that the AMR pattern migrated to the epicenter before the earthquake.