- 责任者：Wang Bo (China Earthquake Networks Center ; Beijing 100045 ; China) ; Jiang Haikun
- 刊名：Acta Seismologica Sinica
- 出版年：2012
- 卷期：34(5)
- 关键词：水库地震 ; reservoir earthquake ; 诱发地震 ; induced earthquakes
- 页码：p.689-697
- 图表：4 illus., 1 table, 15 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN0253-3782
- isbnNo：CN11-2021/P
Based on the collected data of 102 global reservoir-induced earthquakes and by using the method of membership function analysis, the authors comprehensively analyzed the relationship between reservoir-induced earthquakes and basic properties of the reservoir, lithology of the epicentral region, basic seismic intensity in the reservoir region and fault types of the epicentral region. From a statistical point of view, a method of predicting the maximum magnitude of reservoir-induced earthquakes is proposed. Through the Fisher discriminant analysis and a retrospective test, the relative error of the predicted magnitude and correct recognition ratio are given.The overall prediction result is rather satisfactory and can provide a statistical basis for reservoir seismic fortification and judgment of the possible maximum earthquake magnitude in the future.