• 责任者：Xu Daoyi (Institute of Geology ; China Earthquake Administration ; Beijing 100029 ; China) ; Deng Zhihui
• 刊名：Journal of Geomechanics
• 出版年：2012
• 卷期：18(1)
• 关键词：大震 ; great earthquakes ; 地震预测 ; earthquake prediction ; 日本 ; Japan
• 页码：p.91-96
• 图表：1 illus., 3 table, 13 refs.
• 分类号：0500
• 出版序号：20130089
• issnNo：ISSN1006-6616
• isbnNo：CN11-3672/P

In this paper, the authors summarized the moderate-term prediction about the super-great earthquake occurred in the sea off the east coast of Honshu, Japan on March 11, 2011, and discussed the predicting criteria. The predicted areas were defined to south Japan and other two areas. The predicted earthquake magnitude was 8.0 to 8.3. The moderate-term prediction was based on the tectonic system controlled by Qinhai-Tibet-Yunnan-Burma-Indonesian eta-type tectonic series. The comparison of prediction result to the occurrence of M_W9.0 earthquake in Japan indicates that the prediction is basically correct.