考虑地震动地形效应的边坡破坏概率——以金沙江下游新市镇附近边坡为例
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摘要
边坡在地震作用下的破坏概率是地震边坡危险性评价的参数之一。在区域范围内计算地震边坡破坏概率一般采用实际地震滑坡和Newmark永久位移拟合得到的破坏概率公式进行计算。计算中所需的地震动峰值加速度数值大小受不规则地形的影响较大。为了较准确计算出区域地震边坡的破坏概率,本文利用公式分别计算了地震动峰值加速度地形效应系数和地震边坡滑坡概率,实现了地震动峰值加速度及滑坡概率的连续分布。在计算地表30 m平均剪切波速时,利用回归分析方法得出了Vs30与地形梯度G的连续性关系。这些方法充分考虑了地形在地震动峰值加速度中所起的作用,能够实现地震边坡破坏概率计算结果的连续性,如实反映了地震边坡破坏概率的实际状况,为更准确评价地震边坡滑坡危险性提供了新的思路。
The failure probability of slope under earthquake is one of the parameters of seismic slope risk assessment.The failure probability formulas obtained by combining the actual seismic landslide and the Newmark permanent displacement are selected to calculated the failure probability generally.The peak ground acceleration required in the calculation is greatly influenced by the irregular topography.In order to calculate the failure probability of regional seismic slope more accurately,this study calculates the topography effect coefficients and the failure probability separately using formulas and achieves the continuous topography effect coefficients and failure probability.Continuous relations between Vs30 and topography gradient G are acquired by regression analysis for calculating the average shear wave 30 m below the earth surface.These methods take full account of the role of the terrain played in the peak acceleration of ground motion and the continuity of the calculated results of the seismic slope failure probability is realized.By means of this method,the actualcondition of the slope failure probability is reflected,which provides a new idea for more accurate seismic slope risk assessment.
The failure probability of slope under earthquake is one of the parameters of seismic slope risk assessment.The failure probability formulas obtained by combining the actual seismic landslide and the Newmark permanent displacement are selected to calculated the failure probability generally.The peak ground acceleration required in the calculation is greatly influenced by the irregular topography.In order to calculate the failure probability of regional seismic slope more accurately,this study calculates the topography effect coefficients and the failure probability separately using formulas and achieves the continuous topography effect coefficients and failure probability.Continuous relations between Vs30 and topography gradient G are acquired by regression analysis for calculating the average shear wave 30 m below the earth surface.These methods take full account of the role of the terrain played in the peak acceleration of ground motion and the continuity of the calculated results of the seismic slope failure probability is realized.By means of this method,the actualcondition of the slope failure probability is reflected,which provides a new idea for more accurate seismic slope risk assessment.
引文
[1]王根龙,张军慧,刘红帅.汶川地震北川县城地质灾害调查与初步分析[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2009,20(3):47-51.WANG Genlong,ZHANG Junhui,LIU Hongshuai.Investigation and preliminary analysis of geologic disasters in Beichuan county induced by Wenchuan Earthquake[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2009,20(3):47-51.
[2]Jibson R W,Harp E L,Michael J A.A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps:an example from the Los Angeles,California,area[J].Open-File Report,1998.
[3]Jibson R W,Harp E L,Michael J A.A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58(S3-4):271-289.
[4]Rodríguez-Peces M J,García-Mayordomo J,Aza1ón J M,Jabaloy A.GIS application for regional assessment of seismically induced slope failures in the Sierra Nevada Range,South Spain,along the Padul Fault[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2014,72:2423-2435.
[5]Jibson R W,Michael J A.Maps showing seismic landslide hazards in Anchorage,Alaska[J].Center for Integrated Data Analytics Wisconsin Science Center,2009(5).
[6]Papathanassiou G.Estimating slope failure potential in an earthquake prone area:a case study at Skolis Mountain,NW Peloponnesus,Greece[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geology&the Environment,2012,71(1):187-194.
[7]王伟,刘必灯,刘欣,等.基于汶川MS8.0地震强震动记录的山体地形效应分析[J].地震学报,2015(3):452-462.WANG Wei,LIU Bideng,LIU Xin,et al.Analysis on the hill topography effect based on the strong ground motion records of Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2015(3):452-462.
[8]范刚,刘飞成,张建经,等.地形对地震动的影响规律研究[J].地震工程学报,2014,36(4):1039-1046.FAN Gang,LIU Feicheng,ZHANG Jianjing,et al.Influence of topography on ground motion[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2014,36(4):1039
[9]许强,刘汉香,邹威,等.斜坡加速度动力响应特性的大型振动台试验研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(12):2420-2428.XU Qiang,LIU Hanxiang,ZOU Wei,et al.Largescale shaking table test study of acceleration dynamic responses characteristics of slopes[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(12):2420-2428.
[10]刘汉香,许强,周飞,等.含软弱夹层斜坡地震动力响应特性的振动台试验研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2015,34(5):994-1005.LIU Hanxiang,XU Qiang,ZHOU Fei,et al.Shaking table test for seismic responses of slopes with a weak interlayer[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2015,34(5):994-1005.
[11]Bouckovalas G D,Papadimitriou A G.Numerical evaluation of slope topography effects on seismic ground motion[J].Soil Dynamics&Earthquake Engineering,2005,25(7-10):547-558.
[12]Ashford S A,Sitar N.Analysis of Topographic Amplification of Inclined Shear Waves in a Steep Coastal Bluff[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1997,87(3):692-700.
[13]Ashford S A,Sitar N,Lysmer J,Deng Nan.Topographic Effects on the Seismic Response of Steep Slopes[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1997,87(3):701-709.
[14]韩德润.马边—永善地震带构造形式及地震特征[J].地震地质,1993(3):253-260.HAN Derun.The tectonic pattern and seismic characteristics of Mabian-Yongshan seismic zone[J].Seismology and Geology,1993(3):253-260.
[15]彭云金,吕加蓉.荥经—马边—盐津断裂带新活动特征分析[J].四川地震,2004(3):34-36.PENG Yunjin,LYU Jiarong.Consideration about the neo-active feature of Yingjing-Mabian-Yanjin fault zone[J].Earthquake Research in Sichuan,2004(3):34-36.
[16]张世民,聂高众,刘旭东,等.荥经-马边-盐津逆冲构造带断裂运动组合及地震分段特征[J].地震地质,2005,27(2):221-233.ZHANG Shimin,NIE Gaozhong,LIU Xudong,et al.Kinematical and structural patterns of YingjingMabian-Yanjin thrust fault zone,southeast of Tibetan plateau,and its segmentation from earthquakes[J].Seismology and Geology,2005,27(2):221-233.
[17]乔建平.大地震诱发滑坡分布规律及危险性评价方法研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.QIAO Jianping.Earthquake-induced landslide distribution regularity and hazard assessment method[M].Beijing:Science Press,2014.
[18]许冲,徐锡伟,吴熙彦,等.2008年汶川地震滑坡详细编目及其空间分布规律分析[J].工程地质学报,2013,21(1):25-44.XU Chong,XU Xiwei,WU Xiyan,et al.Detailed catalog of landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and statistical analyses of the spatial distribution[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2013,21(1):25-44.
[19]崔玉龙.猰子坝断层活动性及其滑坡灾害效应[D].成都:四川大学,2015.CUI Yulong.Activity of Yaziba fault and its disaster effects for landslides[D].Chengdu:Sichuan University,2015.
[20]董瑞树,冉洪流,高铮.中国大陆地震震级和地震活动断层长度的关系讨论[J].地震地质,1993(4):395-400.DONG Ruishu,RAN Hongliu,GAO Zheng.The relationship between earthquake magnitude and length of active fault in China[J].Seismology and Geology,1993(4):395-400.
[21]陈达生.地震引起的地表破裂长度与震级之间的经验关系[J].华北地震科学,1984,2(2):26-32.CHEN Dasheng.Empirical relations between the length of the earthquake surface rupture and the magnitude[J].North China Earthquake Science,1984,2(2):26-32.
[22]Slemmons D B.Determination of design earthquake for microzonation,3rd International Earthquake Microzonation Conference Proceeding,1982,ⅠofⅡ:119-130.
[23]Wells D L,Coppersmith K J.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area and surface displacement[J].Bull seism Soc Am,1994,84(4):974-1002.
[24]沙海军,吕悦军.中国地震台网面波震级与矩震级的统计关系[J].国际地震动态,2015(9):20-20.SHA Haijun,LYU Yuejun.Statistical relationship between surface wave magnitude and moment magnitude determined by China seismograph network[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2015(9):20-20.
[25]王玉石,李小军,周正华.川滇地区水平向强地震动衰减关系研究[J].地震学报,2013,35(2):238-249.WANG Yushi,LI Xiaojun,ZHOU Zhenghua.Research on attenuation relationships for horizontal strongground motions in Sichuan-Yunnan region[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2013,35(2):238-249.
[26]Matsuoka M,Wakamatsu K,Fujimoto K,et al.Nationwide site amplification zoning using GIS-based Japan Engineering Geomorphologic Classification Map[J].2005.
[27]Wald D J,Allen T I.Topographic Slope as a Proxy for Seismic Site Conditions and Amplification.Bull of Seismological Society of America,2007,97:1379-1395.
[28]Allen T I,Wald D J.On the Use of High-Resolution Topographic Data as a Proxy for Seismic Site Conditions(Vs30).Bull of Seismological Society of America,2009,99:935-943.
[29]成都勘测设计研究院.溪洛渡水电站可行性研究报告[R].2002.Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited.Feasible research report of Xiluodu Hydropower Station[R].2002.
[30]葛华,陈启国,王德伟.地震滑坡危险性评价及编图——以映秀震中区为例[J].中国地质,2013,40(2):644-652.GE Hua,CHEN Qiguo,WANG Dewei.The assessment and mapping of seismic landslide hazards:a case study of Yingxiu area,Sichuan province[J].Geology in China,2013,40(2):644-652.
[31]王涛,吴树仁,石菊松,等.基于简化Newmark位移模型的区域地震滑坡危险性快速评估——以汶川MS8.0级地震为例[J].工程地质学报,2013,21(1):236-236.WANG Tao,WU Shuren,SHI Jusong,et al.Case study on rapid assessment of regional seismic land-slide hazard based on simplified Newmark displacement model:Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2013,21(1):236-236.
[32]徐光兴,姚令侃,李朝红,等.基于汶川地震强震动记录的边坡永久位移预测模型[J].岩土工程学报,2012,34(6):1131-1136.XU Guangxing,YAO Lingkan,LI Chaohong,et al.Predictive models for permanent displacement of slopes based on recorded strong-motion data of Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2012,34(6):1131-1136.
[2]Jibson R W,Harp E L,Michael J A.A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps:an example from the Los Angeles,California,area[J].Open-File Report,1998.
[3]Jibson R W,Harp E L,Michael J A.A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps[J].Engineering Geology,2000,58(S3-4):271-289.
[4]Rodríguez-Peces M J,García-Mayordomo J,Aza1ón J M,Jabaloy A.GIS application for regional assessment of seismically induced slope failures in the Sierra Nevada Range,South Spain,along the Padul Fault[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2014,72:2423-2435.
[5]Jibson R W,Michael J A.Maps showing seismic landslide hazards in Anchorage,Alaska[J].Center for Integrated Data Analytics Wisconsin Science Center,2009(5).
[6]Papathanassiou G.Estimating slope failure potential in an earthquake prone area:a case study at Skolis Mountain,NW Peloponnesus,Greece[J].Bulletin of Engineering Geology&the Environment,2012,71(1):187-194.
[7]王伟,刘必灯,刘欣,等.基于汶川MS8.0地震强震动记录的山体地形效应分析[J].地震学报,2015(3):452-462.WANG Wei,LIU Bideng,LIU Xin,et al.Analysis on the hill topography effect based on the strong ground motion records of Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2015(3):452-462.
[8]范刚,刘飞成,张建经,等.地形对地震动的影响规律研究[J].地震工程学报,2014,36(4):1039-1046.FAN Gang,LIU Feicheng,ZHANG Jianjing,et al.Influence of topography on ground motion[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2014,36(4):1039
[9]许强,刘汉香,邹威,等.斜坡加速度动力响应特性的大型振动台试验研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(12):2420-2428.XU Qiang,LIU Hanxiang,ZOU Wei,et al.Largescale shaking table test study of acceleration dynamic responses characteristics of slopes[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(12):2420-2428.
[10]刘汉香,许强,周飞,等.含软弱夹层斜坡地震动力响应特性的振动台试验研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2015,34(5):994-1005.LIU Hanxiang,XU Qiang,ZHOU Fei,et al.Shaking table test for seismic responses of slopes with a weak interlayer[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2015,34(5):994-1005.
[11]Bouckovalas G D,Papadimitriou A G.Numerical evaluation of slope topography effects on seismic ground motion[J].Soil Dynamics&Earthquake Engineering,2005,25(7-10):547-558.
[12]Ashford S A,Sitar N.Analysis of Topographic Amplification of Inclined Shear Waves in a Steep Coastal Bluff[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1997,87(3):692-700.
[13]Ashford S A,Sitar N,Lysmer J,Deng Nan.Topographic Effects on the Seismic Response of Steep Slopes[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1997,87(3):701-709.
[14]韩德润.马边—永善地震带构造形式及地震特征[J].地震地质,1993(3):253-260.HAN Derun.The tectonic pattern and seismic characteristics of Mabian-Yongshan seismic zone[J].Seismology and Geology,1993(3):253-260.
[15]彭云金,吕加蓉.荥经—马边—盐津断裂带新活动特征分析[J].四川地震,2004(3):34-36.PENG Yunjin,LYU Jiarong.Consideration about the neo-active feature of Yingjing-Mabian-Yanjin fault zone[J].Earthquake Research in Sichuan,2004(3):34-36.
[16]张世民,聂高众,刘旭东,等.荥经-马边-盐津逆冲构造带断裂运动组合及地震分段特征[J].地震地质,2005,27(2):221-233.ZHANG Shimin,NIE Gaozhong,LIU Xudong,et al.Kinematical and structural patterns of YingjingMabian-Yanjin thrust fault zone,southeast of Tibetan plateau,and its segmentation from earthquakes[J].Seismology and Geology,2005,27(2):221-233.
[17]乔建平.大地震诱发滑坡分布规律及危险性评价方法研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.QIAO Jianping.Earthquake-induced landslide distribution regularity and hazard assessment method[M].Beijing:Science Press,2014.
[18]许冲,徐锡伟,吴熙彦,等.2008年汶川地震滑坡详细编目及其空间分布规律分析[J].工程地质学报,2013,21(1):25-44.XU Chong,XU Xiwei,WU Xiyan,et al.Detailed catalog of landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and statistical analyses of the spatial distribution[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2013,21(1):25-44.
[19]崔玉龙.猰子坝断层活动性及其滑坡灾害效应[D].成都:四川大学,2015.CUI Yulong.Activity of Yaziba fault and its disaster effects for landslides[D].Chengdu:Sichuan University,2015.
[20]董瑞树,冉洪流,高铮.中国大陆地震震级和地震活动断层长度的关系讨论[J].地震地质,1993(4):395-400.DONG Ruishu,RAN Hongliu,GAO Zheng.The relationship between earthquake magnitude and length of active fault in China[J].Seismology and Geology,1993(4):395-400.
[21]陈达生.地震引起的地表破裂长度与震级之间的经验关系[J].华北地震科学,1984,2(2):26-32.CHEN Dasheng.Empirical relations between the length of the earthquake surface rupture and the magnitude[J].North China Earthquake Science,1984,2(2):26-32.
[22]Slemmons D B.Determination of design earthquake for microzonation,3rd International Earthquake Microzonation Conference Proceeding,1982,ⅠofⅡ:119-130.
[23]Wells D L,Coppersmith K J.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area and surface displacement[J].Bull seism Soc Am,1994,84(4):974-1002.
[24]沙海军,吕悦军.中国地震台网面波震级与矩震级的统计关系[J].国际地震动态,2015(9):20-20.SHA Haijun,LYU Yuejun.Statistical relationship between surface wave magnitude and moment magnitude determined by China seismograph network[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2015(9):20-20.
[25]王玉石,李小军,周正华.川滇地区水平向强地震动衰减关系研究[J].地震学报,2013,35(2):238-249.WANG Yushi,LI Xiaojun,ZHOU Zhenghua.Research on attenuation relationships for horizontal strongground motions in Sichuan-Yunnan region[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2013,35(2):238-249.
[26]Matsuoka M,Wakamatsu K,Fujimoto K,et al.Nationwide site amplification zoning using GIS-based Japan Engineering Geomorphologic Classification Map[J].2005.
[27]Wald D J,Allen T I.Topographic Slope as a Proxy for Seismic Site Conditions and Amplification.Bull of Seismological Society of America,2007,97:1379-1395.
[28]Allen T I,Wald D J.On the Use of High-Resolution Topographic Data as a Proxy for Seismic Site Conditions(Vs30).Bull of Seismological Society of America,2009,99:935-943.
[29]成都勘测设计研究院.溪洛渡水电站可行性研究报告[R].2002.Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited.Feasible research report of Xiluodu Hydropower Station[R].2002.
[30]葛华,陈启国,王德伟.地震滑坡危险性评价及编图——以映秀震中区为例[J].中国地质,2013,40(2):644-652.GE Hua,CHEN Qiguo,WANG Dewei.The assessment and mapping of seismic landslide hazards:a case study of Yingxiu area,Sichuan province[J].Geology in China,2013,40(2):644-652.
[31]王涛,吴树仁,石菊松,等.基于简化Newmark位移模型的区域地震滑坡危险性快速评估——以汶川MS8.0级地震为例[J].工程地质学报,2013,21(1):236-236.WANG Tao,WU Shuren,SHI Jusong,et al.Case study on rapid assessment of regional seismic land-slide hazard based on simplified Newmark displacement model:Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,2013,21(1):236-236.
[32]徐光兴,姚令侃,李朝红,等.基于汶川地震强震动记录的边坡永久位移预测模型[J].岩土工程学报,2012,34(6):1131-1136.XU Guangxing,YAO Lingkan,LI Chaohong,et al.Predictive models for permanent displacement of slopes based on recorded strong-motion data of Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2012,34(6):1131-1136.