The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century

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• 作者：Brian C. O&rsquo ; Neill^a ; ^{boneill@ucar.edu} ; Elmar Kriegler^b ; ^{kriegler@pik-potsdam.de} ; Kristie L. Ebi^c ; ^{krisebi@essllc.org} ; Eric Kemp-Benedict^d ; ^{eric.kemp-benedict@sei-international.org} ; Keywan Riahi^e ; ^f ; ^{riahi@iiasa.ac.at} ; Dale S. Rothman^g ; ^{drothman@du.edu} ; Bas J. van Ruijven^a ; ^{vruijven@ucar.edu} ; Detlef P. van Vuuren^h ; ⁱ ; ^{detlef.vanvuuren@pbl.nl} ; Joern Birkmann^j ; ^{joern.birkmann@ireus.uni-stuttgart.de} ; Kasper Kok^k ; ^{kasper.kok@wur.nl} ; Marc Levy^l ; ^{mlevy@columbia.edu} ; William Solecki^m ; ^{wsolecki@hunter.cuny.edu}
• 关键词：Scenarios ; Climate change ; Mitigation ; Adaptation ; Narratives ; Shared socioeconomic pathways
• 刊名：Global Environmental Change
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：42
• 期：Complete
• 页码：169-180
• 全文大小：785 K
• 卷排序：42

文摘

We present narrative descriptions of future societal development associated with the shared socioeconomic pathways. We describe the methods used to develop the narratives and how they produce particular combinations of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. The narratives describe plausible future changes in demographics, human development, economy, institutions, technology, and environment. The narratives span an uncertainty space in terms of socioeconomic challenges to adaptation and mitigation of climate change. The narratives relate to Sustainability, Regional Rivalry, Inequality, and Fossil-fueled Development, and a Middle of the Road pathway.