ra0015">A retrospective cohort study using de-identified integrated pharmacy and medical claims was performed between October 2009 and September 2013. Patients with at least 1 opioid prescription claim during the index period (index claim) were identified. We ascertained risk factors using data from 12 months before the index claim (pre-period) and captured abuse or dependency diagnosis using data from 12 months after the index claim (postperiod). We included continuously eligible (pre- and postperiod) commercially insured patients aged 18 years or older. We excluded patients with cancer, residence in a long-term care facility, or a previous diagnosis of opioid abuse or dependence (identified by International Classification of Diseases 9th revision code or buprenorphine/naloxone claim in the pre-period). The outcome was a diagnosis of opioid abuse (International Classification of Diseases 9th revision code 304.0x) or dependence (305.5).
ra0020">The final sample consisted of 694,851 patients. Opioid abuse or dependence was observed in 2067 patients (0.3%). Several factors predicted opioid abuse or dependence: younger age (per decade [older] odds ratio [OR], 0.68); being a chronic opioid user (OR, 4.39); history of mental illness (OR, 3.45); nonopioid substance abuse (OR, 2.82); alcohol abuse (OR, 2.37); high morphine equivalent dose per day user (OR, 1.98); tobacco use (OR, 1.80); obtaining opioids from multiple prescribers (OR, 1.71); residing in the South (OR, 1.65), West (OR, 1.49), or Midwest (OR, 1.24); using multiple pharmacies (OR, 1.59); male gender (OR, 1.43); and increased 30-day adjusted opioid prescriptions (OR, 1.05).
ra0025">Readily available demographic, clinical, behavioral, pharmacy, and geographic information can be used to predict the likelihood of opioid abuse or dependence.