Developed an approach to model protected area efficacy as a function of habitat suitability and natural disturbance regimes.

Demonstrate model utility using the endangered Leadbeater’s possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri) in south-eastern Australia.

Defined reserve effectiveness as no more than 5% chance of populations falling to (or below) 500 females in 40 generations.

An established reserve was found to be ineffective, given historical disturbance, habitat decline, and future fires.

Modelling reserve requirements indicates that 30–100% of forest extent may be required to ensure population persistence.