Lead-lag relationships between global mean temperature and the atmospheric CO₂ content in dependence of the type and time scale of the forcing

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• 作者：Kirill E. Muryshev^a ; ^b ; ^{kmuryshev@mail.ru} ; Alexey V. Eliseev^a ; ^b ; ^c ; ^{eliseev@ifaran.ru} ; Igor I. Mokhov^a ; ^d ; ^{mokhov@ifaran.ru} ; Alexandr V. Timazhev^a ; ^b
• 关键词：Climate change origins ; Climate&ndash ; carbon cycle interactions ; Mutual lags ; IAP RAS CM
• 刊名：Global and Planetary Change
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：148
• 期：Complete
• 页码：29-41
• 全文大小：1896 K
• 卷排序：148

文摘

Mutual lag between the global mean temperature, T and the atmospheric CO2 content, q is studied. Both sign and magnitude of this lag depend on type and time scale (TS) of external forcing. For external CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, T always lags behind q. For non-greenhouse radiative forcing, T leads q for TS up to 4 ⋅ 102 yr, and lags behind it at longer TS. Our results have implications for the origins of the contemporary climate change.