The accuracy of forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee
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- 作者：Andrew C. Chang ; a.christopher.chang@gmail.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Tyler J. Hanson1 ; thanson2691@gmail.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author
- 关键词：C53 ; E17 ; E27 ; E37 ; F17
- 刊名：Journal of Economics and Business
- 出版年：2016
- 出版时间：January-February 2016
- 年：2016
- 卷：83
- 期：Complete
- 页码：23-43
- 全文大小：1187 K
文摘
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We examine the Greenbook forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee.
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We investigate forecasts of detailed components of GDP, unemployment, and inflation.
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We benchmark Greenbook forecasts against standard univariate time-series models.
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Greenbook forecasts have similar accuracy to our models by the 1-year horizon.
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Some Greenbook forecasts have similar accuracy to our models at shorter horizons.