Supporting adaptation decisions through scenario planning: Enabling the effective use of multiple methods

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• 作者：Jonathan Star^a ; ^{jstar@scenarioinsight.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Erika L. Rowland^b ; ^{erowland@wcs.org" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Mary E. Black^c ; ^{mblack@email.arizona.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Carolyn A.F. Enquist^d ; ^{cenquist@usgs.gov" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Gregg Garfin^e ; ^{gmgarfin@email.arizona.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Catherine Hawkins Hoffman^f ; ^{cat_hawkins_hoffman@nps.gov" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Holly Hartmann^g ; ^{holly.hartmann@gmail.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Katharine L. Jacobs^c ; ^{jacobsk@email.arizona.edu" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Richard H. Moss^h ; ^{rhm@pnnl.gov" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Anne M. Wapleⁱ ; ^{amwaple@gmail.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author}
• 关键词：Scenario planning ; Climate adaptation
• 刊名：Climate Risk Management
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：13
• 期：Complete
• 页码：88-94
• 全文大小：585 K

文摘

Scenario planning is a technique used to inform decision-making under uncertainty, and is increasingly applied in the field of climate change adaptation and policy. This paper describes applications that combine previously distinct scenario methods in new and innovative ways. It draws on numerous recent independent case studies to illustrate emerging practices, such as far stronger connections between researcher-driven and participatory approaches and cycling between exploratory and normative perspectives. The paper concludes with a call for greater support for, and collaboration among, practitioners with the argument that mixed methods are most effective for decision-making in the context of climate change challenges.