Joining the club? Procyclicality of private capital inflows in lower income developing economies

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• 作者：Juliana D. Araujo^a ; Antonio C. David^a ; ^{adavid@imf.org} ; Carlos van Hombeeck^b ; Chris Papageorgiou^a
• 关键词：F21 ; F32 ; F41 ; O11
• 刊名：Journal of International Money and Finance
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：70
• 期：Complete
• 页码：157-182
• 全文大小：582 K
• 卷排序：70

文摘

This paper examines the cyclicality of private capital inflows to low-income developing countries. Capital inflows to LIDCs are procyclical, yet considerably less procyclical than inflows to more advanced economies. The analysis also suggests that inflows to LIDCs are more persistent than inflows to emerging markets (EMs). Changes in risk aversion are also a significant correlate of private capital inflows, but LIDCs are less sensitive to changes in global risk aversion than EMs. Private capital inflows are likely to become more procyclical as LIDCs move along the development path, which could render the conduct of countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies more challenging.