Uncoordinated charging would increase national peak load by 7 % at 30 % penetration rate of EV and household peak load by 54 % , which may exceed the capacity of existing electricity distribution infrastructure. At 30 % penetration of EV, off-peak charging would result in a 20 % higher, more stable base load and no additional peak load at the national level and up to 7 % higher peak load at the household level. Therefore, if off-peak charging is successfully introduced, electric driving need not require additional generation capacity, even in case of 100 % switch to electric vehicles.
GHG emissions from electric driving depend most on the fuel type (coal or natural gas) used in the generation of electricity for charging, and range between 0 g km−1 (using renewables) and 155 g km−1 (using electricity from an old coal-based plant). Based on the generation capacity projected for the Netherlands in 2015, electricity for EV charging would largely be generated using natural gas, emitting 35–77 g CO2 eq km−1.
We find that total cost of ownership (TCO) of current EV are uncompetitive with regular cars and series hybrid cars by more than 800 € year−1. TCO of future wheel motor PHEV may become competitive when batteries cost 400 € kWh−1, even without tax incentives, as long as one battery pack can last for the lifespan of the vehicle. However, TCO of future battery powered cars is at least 25 % higher than of series hybrid or regular cars. This cost gap remains unless cost of batteries drops to 150 € kWh−1 in the future. Variations in driving cost from charging patterns have negligible influence on TCO.
GHG abatement costs using plug-in hybrid cars are currently 400–1400 € tonne−1 CO2 eq and may come down to −100 to 300 € tonne−1. Abatement cost using battery powered cars are currently above 1900 € tonne−1 and are not projected to drop below 300–800 € tonne−1.