Improving project forecast accuracy by integrating earned value management with exponential smoothing and reference class forecasting
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- 作者：Jordy Batseliera ; jordy.batselier@ugent.be" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author ; Mario Vanhouckea ; b ; c ; mario.vanhoucke@ugent.be" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author
- 关键词：Project management ; Time series forecasting ; Duration forecasting ; Cost forecasting ; Project control ; Empirical database
- 刊名：International Journal of Project Management
- 出版年：2017
- 出版时间：January 2017
- 年：2017
- 卷：35
- 期：1
- 页码：28-43
- 全文大小：756 K
文摘
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Integration of a single smoothing parameter in known EVM framework ensures easy use
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Integrating exponential smoothing allows forecasts based on more recent performance
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Able to consider effect of natural performance improvement and corrective actions
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Smoothing parameter can be dynamically adjusted according to management insights
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Huge potential increase in time and cost forecasting accuracy, especially with RCF