The role of the discount rates in energy systems optimisation models

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• 作者：Diego Garcí ; a-Gusano^a ; ^b ; ^{diego.garcia@imdea.org" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Kari Espegren^a ; Arne Lind^a ; Martin Kirkengen^a
• 关键词：BFG ; Blast Furnace Gas ; CAPM ; Capital Assets Pricing Model ; CCS ; Carbon Capture and Storage ; CHP ; Concentrated Heat and Power ; COG ; Coke Oven Gas ; DR ; Discount Rate ; GDP ; Gross Domestic Product ; HFO ; Heavy Fuel Oil ; HR ; Hurdle Rate ; IGCC ; Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle ; IRR ; Internal Rate of Return ; LNG ; Liquified Natural Gas ; LPG ; Liquified Petroleum Gas ; LWR ; Light Water Reactor ; MARKAL ; MARKet Allocation model ; MARR ; Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return ; MSW ; Municipal Solid Waste ; NGCC
• 刊名：Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：June 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：59
• 期：Complete
• 页码：56-72
• 全文大小：3620 K

文摘

The selection of the social discount rate and the consideration of hurdle rates in energy systems optimisation models affect the creation of sound and comprehensive scenarios useful for energy modellers. Due to the lack of studies about the use of different discounting options in energy optimisation models, the goal of this paper is to fill that gap by establishing the foundations for a debate among energy modellers, policy-makers and stakeholders in this regard. So firstly, we introduced the concept of discount rates both social and technology-specific including a thorough literature review concerning figures, scopes and approaches. Secondly, two models, ETSAP-TIAM and TIMES-Norway, were used to assess the behaviour of the energy systems at different regionalisation levels, Europe and Norway respectively. Thirdly, we analysed the evolution of the electricity production mixes and system costs for both models and considering several values for the discount rates. Finally, results showed that the energy system is strongly affected by changes in the social discount rate. The lower the social discount rate is, the higher the renewable contribution. The social discounting exerts influence on capital intensive investments so it is quite important to look at the energy carriers pathways (fossil-renewable transition). This is what happens in the case of ETSAP-TIAM for Europe. Reversely, in the case of TIMES-Norway, as the electricity system is almost 100% renewable, it is important to take into account the hurdle rates of the technologies to enrich the competition by including their particular risks and barriers. In summary, we recommend using a value not higher than 4–5% for the social discount rate for the European countries as well as to include an exhaustive portfolio of hurdle rates for all the technologies included in the energy optimisation model.