An integrated wave modelling framework for extreme and rare events for climate change in coastal areas - the case of Rethymno, Crete

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• 作者：Vasiliki K. Tsoukala^a ; ^{vtsouk@hydro.civil.ntua.gr" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Michalis Chondros^a ; ^{chondros@hydro.ntua.gr" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Zacharias G. Kapelonis^b ; ^{zkapel@central.ntua.gr" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Nikolaos Martzikos^a ; ^{nmartzikos@central.ntua.gr" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Archodia Lykou^c ; ^{alykou@central.ntua.gr" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Kostas Belibassakis^b ; ^{kbel@fluid.mech.ntua.gr" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Christos Makropoulos^c ; ^{cmakro@chi.civil.ntua.gr" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author}
• 关键词：Climate change ; Wave run-up ; Wave overtopping ; Storm events ; Coastal flooding
• 刊名：Oceanologia
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：April-June 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：58
• 期：2
• 页码：71-89
• 全文大小：8228 K

文摘

Coastal floods are regarded as among the most dangerous and harmful of all natural disasters affecting urban areas adjacent to the shorelines. Rapid urbanization combined with climate change and poor governance often results in significant increase of flood risk, especially for coastal communities. Wave overtopping and wave run-up are the key mechanisms for monitoring the results of coastal flooding and as such, significant efforts are currently focusing on their predicting. In this paper, an integrated methodology is proposed, accounting for wave overtopping and wave run-up under extreme wave scenarios caused by storm surges. By taking advantage of past and future climatic projections of wind data, a downscaling approach is proposed, utilizing a number of appropriate numerical models than can simulate the wave propagation from offshore up to the swash zone. The coastal zone of Rethymno in Greece is selected as a case study area and simulations of wave characteristics with the model SWAN for the period 1960–2100 in the offshore region are presented. These data are given as boundary conditions to further numerical models (MIKE21 PMS and HD) in order to investigate the spatial evolution of the wave and the hydrodynamic field in intermediate and shallow waters. Finally, the calculated wave height serves as input to empirical formulas and time dependent wave propagation models (MIKE21 BW) to estimate the wave run-up and wave overtopping (EurOtop). It is suggested that the proposed procedure is generic enough to be applicable to any similar region.