Two centuries of April-July temperature change in southeastern China and its influence on grain productivity

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• 作者：Jiangfeng Shi^a ; ^{shijf@nju.edu.cn} ; Jinbao Li^b ; David D. Zhang^b ; Jingyun Zheng^c ; Shiyuan Shi^a ; Quansheng Ge^c ; Harry F. Lee^b ; Yesi Zhao^a ; Jie Zhang^a ; Huayu Lu^a
• 关键词：Temperature ; Grain productivity ; Social disturbance ; China ; Tree-rings
• 刊名：Science Bulletin
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：15 January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：62
• 期：1
• 页码：40-45
• 全文大小：1339 K
• 卷排序：62

文摘

China is a traditional agriculture based country and one main region for crop production is southeastern China where temperature is a dominant climate variable affecting agriculture. Temperature and social disturbances both influence crop production, yet distinguishing their relative impacts is difficult due to a lack of reliable, high-resolution historical climatic records before the very recent period. Here we present the first tree-ring based warm-season temperature reconstruction for southeastern China, a core region of the East Asian monsoon, for the past 227 years. The reconstruction target was April-July mean temperature, and our model explained 60.6% of the observed temperature variance during 1953–2012. Spatial correlation analysis showed that the reconstruction is representative of April-July temperature change over most of eastern China. The reconstructed temperature series agrees well with China-scale (heavily weighted in eastern China) agricultural production index values quite well at decadal timescales. The impacts of social upheavals on food production, such as those in the period 1920–1949, were confirmed after climatic influences were excluded. Our study should help distinguish the influence of social disturbance and warm-season temperature on grain productivity in the core agricultural region of China during the past two centuries.