Theoretical framework of systems design for the air transportation system including an inherently quantitative philosophy of scenario development

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• 作者：Robin Ghoshp> ; p>p>robin.ghosh@dlr.dep> ; Thomas Schilling p>thomas.schilling@dlr.dep> ; Kai Wicke p>kai.wicke@dlr.dep>
• 关键词：Air transportation system ; Systems analysis ; Scenario development ; Technology evaluation ; Requirements derivation ; Concept design
• 刊名：Journal of Air Transport Management
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：58
• 期：Complete
• 页码：58-67
• 全文大小：772 K
• 卷排序：58

文摘

This paper provides an overview of an inherently quantitative scenario philosophy for systems analysis and innovative concept design in the context of the Air Transportation System (ATS). A general perspective of the ATS is visualized in an “atomic model” with surrounding external scenario factors and the aircraft as the key connecting element between the main stakeholders: manufacturers, airlines, air navigation service providers (ANSPs) and airports. An iterative waterfall model is presented, which serves as a mental model of integration and decomposition over cascades of levels of detail from global scenario level to a single technology. The difference between classical scenario technique and a quantitative, yet participatory methodology of developing scenarios for the ATS is described. In order to integrate and decompose over a large span of levels of details, concept design and synthesis is as important as analysis. Further, quantitative scenario development may be considered as the synthesis of a skillful manipulation of a model deck. Scenario Gaming can be a method to simulate the settlement on requirements of complex socio-technological systems with multiple stakeholders and conflicting perspectives under radically changing boundary conditions. Scenario thinking can be an innovative and explorative instrument of participatory futurology, if not reduced to a mere “input for a tool chain”.