Stable models for metastable systems? Lessons from sensitivity analysis of a Cellular Automata urban land use model

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• 作者：Richard Hewitt^a ; ^b ; ; Jaime Dí ; az-Pacheco^c ; ^d
• 关键词：Complexity ; Urban systems ; Cellular automata ; Sensitivity analysis ; Metastability ; Land use model
• 刊名：Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：March 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：62
• 期：Complete
• 页码：113-124
• 全文大小：2934 K
• 卷排序：62

文摘

Cellular automata (CA) land use models are analysed from a systems perspective. Highly stable models may be perceived as desirable but there is a risk that they may not be able to simulate true urban complexity. To test this hypothesis, a sensitivity analysis is carried out for a CA model application by changing cell resolutions and neighbourhood effects. Though the sensitivity analysis suggested that the application was quite stable, key characteristics of complex systems could be identified. These kinds of models are not presently able to simulate critical transitions of the kind found in some Agent-based models. The ability of these models to simulate true complexity depends on the individual case and is sometimes overstated. While highly stable model applications may be suitable for some specific cases,, model constraints should be relaxed for exploratory purposes.