Uncertainty in canola phenology modelling induced by cultivar parameterization and its impact on simulated yield

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• 作者：Di He^a ; ^b ; Enli Wang^b ; ^{Enli.wang@csiro.au} ; Jing Wang^a ; ^{wangj@cau.edu.cn} ; Julianne Lilley^b ; Zhongkui Luo^b ; Xuebiao Pan^a ; Zhihua Pan^a ; Ning Yang^c
• 关键词：Parameter uncertainty ; Equifinality ; Photoperiod ; Vernalisation ; APSIM-canola
• 刊名：Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：15 January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：232
• 期：Complete
• 页码：163-175
• 全文大小：3588 K
• 卷排序：232

文摘

We constrained APSIM-Canola model to 35 site-years phenology data of 10 cultivars. Cultivar parameters for anthesis & maturity derived with Bayesian optimisation. Critical photoperiod below which development slows down was found to be 20 h. Equifinality exists and can potentially lead to wrong cultivar characterisation. Quantification of vernalisation & photoperiod sensitivity can improve simulations.