A Validation of the Essen Stroke Risk Score in Outpatients with Ischemic Stroke

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• 作者：Pan Chen ; MD^* ; Yi Liu ; MD^&dagger ; ; Yilong Wang ; MD^* ; Anxin Wang ; MD^* ; Huaguang Zheng ; MD^* ; Xingquan Zhao ; MD^* ; Aoshuang Yan ; MD^&dagger ; ; ^{yanas@139.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author} ; Yongjun Wang ; MD^* ; ^{yongjunwang1962@gmail.com" class="auth_mail" title="E-mail the corresponding author}
• 关键词：Ischemic stroke ; the Essen Stroke Risk Score ; validation ; outpatients
• 刊名：Journal of Stroke and Cerebrovascular Diseases
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：September 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：25
• 期：9
• 页码：2189-2195
• 全文大小：359 K

文摘

Little is known about the predictive accuracy of the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) for Chinese stroke outpatients. Our goal was to perform an external validation of the ESRS using a large multicenter cohort of outpatients with ischemic stroke (IS).

Methods

We estimated the 1-year cumulative event rates for both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events for patients in different ESRS categories using data from a prospective cohort of 3316 outpatients with IS admitted to 18 hospitals in China. In addition, we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the ESRS for both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events using C statistic.

Results

In the nonatrial fibrillation IS outpatients, the cumulative 1-year event rate was 2.47% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.97%-3.06%) for recurrent stroke and 4.32% (95% CI, 3.65%-5.06%) for combined vascular events. The event rates were significantly higher in patients in higher ESRS categories. The ESRS had a predictive accuracy of .63 (.57-.69) for recurrent stroke and .63 (.58-.68) for combined vascular events.

Conclusion

Among the Chinese outpatients with IS, the ESRS was able to stratify the risk of both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events equally well. A prediction model suitable for Chinese IS populations is needed.