Climate Change-Related Temperature Impacts on Warm Season Heat Mortality: A Proof-of-Concept Methodology Using BenMAP
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- 作者：A. Scott Voorhees ; Neal Fann ; Charles Fulcher ; Patrick Dolwick ; Bryan Hubbell ; Britta Bierwagen ; Philip Morefield
- 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology
- 出版年：2011
- 出版时间：February 15, 2011
- 年：2011
- 卷：45
- 期：4
- 页码：1450-1457
- 全文大小：868K
- 年卷期：v.45,no.4(February 15, 2011)
- ISSN：1520-5851
文摘
Climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and is likely to increase heat-related human health morbidity and mortality risks. The objective of this work was to develop a proof-of-concept approach for estimating excess heat-related premature deaths in the continental United States resulting from potential changes in future temperature using the BenMAP model. In this approach we adapt the methods and tools that the US Environmental Protection Agency uses to assess air pollution health impacts by incorporating temperature modeling and heat mortality health impact functions. This new method demonstrates the ability to apply the existing temperature鈭抙ealth literature to quantify prospective changes in climate-sensitive heat-related mortality. We compared estimates of future temperature with and without climate change and applied heat鈭抦ortality health functions to estimate relative changes in heat-related premature mortality. Using the A1B emissions scenario, we applied the GISS-II global circulation model downscaled to 36-km using MM5 and formatted using the Meteorology鈭扖hemistry Interface Processor. For averaged temperatures derived from the 5 years 2048鈭?052 relative to 1999鈭?003 we estimated for the warm season May鈭扴eptember a national U.S. estimate of annual incidence of heat-related mortality to be 3700鈭?800 from all causes, 3500 from cardiovascular disease, and 21鈥?00鈭?7鈥?00 from nonaccidental death, applying various health impact functions. Our estimates of mortality, produced to validate the application of a new methodology, suggest the importance of quantifying heat impacts in economic assessments of climate change.