Assessing and Forecasting Atmospheric Outflow of 伪-HCH from China on Intra-, Inter-, and Decadal Time Scales

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• 作者：Chongguo Tian ; Jianmin Ma ; Yingjun Chen ; Liyan Liu ; Wanli Ma ; Yi-Fan Li
• 刊名：Environmental Science & Technology (ES&T)
• 出版年：2012
• 出版时间：February 21, 2012
• 年：2012
• 卷：46
• 期：4
• 页码：2220-2227
• 全文大小：425K
• 年卷期：v.46,no.4(February 21, 2012)
• ISSN：1520-5851

文摘

Atmospheric outflow of 伪-HCH from China from 1952 to 2009 was investigated using Chinese Gridded Pesticide Emission and Residue Model (ChnGPERM). The model results show that the outflows via the northeast boundary (NEB, longitude 115鈥?35 掳E along 55 掳N and latitude 37鈥?5 掳N along 135 掳E) and the mid-south boundary (MSB, longitude 100鈥?20 掳E along 17 掳N) of China account for 47% and 35% of the total outflow, respectively. Two climate indices based on the statistical association between the time series of modeled 伪-HCH outflow and atmospheric sea-level pressure were developed to predict the outflow on different time scales. The first index explains 70/83% and 10/46% of the intra-annual variability of the outflow via the NEB and MSB during the periods of 1952鈥?984 and 1985鈥?009, respectively. The second index explains 16% and 19% of the interannual and longer time scale variability in the outflow through the NEB during June鈥揂ugust and via the MSB during October鈥揇ecember for 1991鈥?009, respectively. Results also revealed that climate warming may potentially result in stronger outflow via the NEB than the MSB. The linkage between the outflow with large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and climate warming trend over China was also discussed.