Estimation of the monthly precipitation predictability limit in China using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent

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• 作者：Jingpeng Liu 刘景鷿/a> ; Weijing Li 李维丿/a> ; Lijuan Chen 陈丽妿/a>…
• 刊名：Journal of Meteorological Research
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：February 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：30
• 期：1
• 页码：93-102
• 全文大小：3,231 KB
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• 作者单位：Jingpeng Liu 刘景鹏 (1) (2) (3) (4)
  Weijing Li 李维京 (1) (3) (4)
  Lijuan Chen 陈丽娟 (3) (4)
  Jinqing Zuo 左金清 (4)
  Peiqun Zhang 张培群 (4)
  
  1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China
  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
  3. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China
  4. Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
  
• 刊物类别：Atmospheric Sciences; Meteorology; Geophysics and Environmental Physics; Atmospheric Protection/Air
• 刊物主题：Atmospheric Sciences; Meteorology; Geophysics and Environmental Physics; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution;
• 出版者：The Chinese Meteorological Society
• ISSN：2198-0934

文摘

By using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and nonlinear error growth dynamics, the predictability limit of monthly precipitation is quantitatively estimated based on daily observations collected from approximately 500 stations in China for the period 1960–2012. As daily precipitation data are not continuous in space and time, a transformation is first applied and a monthly standardized precipitation index (SPI) with Gaussian distribution is constructed. The monthly SPI predictability limit (MSPL) is quantitatively calculated for SPI dry, wet, and neutral phases. The results show that the annual mean MSPL varies regionally for both wet and dry phases: the MSPL in the wet (dry) phase is relatively higher (lower) in southern China than in other regions. Further, the pattern of the MSPL for the wet phase is almost opposite to that for the dry phase in both autumn and winter. The MSPL in the dry phase is higher in winter and lower in spring and autumn in southern China, while the MSPL values in the wet phase are higher in summer and winter than those in spring and autumn in southern China. The spatial distribution of the MSPL resembles that of the prediction skill of monthly precipitation from a dynamic extended-range forecast system.