Addendum to the article: Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: Would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

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• 作者：Mirco Bundschuh (1) (2)
  Michael C. Newman (3)
  Jochen P. Zubrod (1)
  Frank Seitz (1)
  Ricki R. Rosenfeldt (1)
  Ralf Schulz (1)
  
  1. Institute for Environmental Sciences ; University of Koblenz-Landau ; Fortstrasse 7 ; D鈥?6829 ; Landau ; Germany
  2. Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment ; Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences ; Uppsala ; Sweden
  3. Virginia Institute of Marine Science ; College of William & Mary ; Williamsburg ; VA ; USA
  
• 关键词：Sample size ; Bayesian ; Power analysis ; Effect size ; Type I error rate ; Type II error rate
• 刊名：Environmental Science and Pollution Research
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：March 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：22
• 期：5
• 页码：3955-3957
• 全文大小：82 KB
• 参考文献：1. Bundschuh M, Newman MC, Zubrod JP, Seitz F, Rosenfeldt RR, Schulz R (2013) Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: Would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment? Environ Sci Pollut Res 20:7341鈥?347 CrossRef
  2. Ioannidis JPA (2005) Why most published research findings are false. Plos Med 2:696鈥?01
  3. Ioannidis JP, Tarone R, McLaughlin JK (2011) The false-positive to false-negative ratio in epidemiologic studies. Epidemiol 22:450鈥?56 CrossRef
  4. Newman MC (2008) 鈥淲hat exactly are you inferring?鈥?A closer look at hypothesis testing. Environ Toxicol Chem 27:1013鈥?019 CrossRef
  5. Newman MC (2010) Fundamentals of Ecotoxicology, 3rd edn. Taylor & Francis/CRC Press, Boca Raton
  6. Newman MC (2013) Quantitative ecotoxicology. CRC/Taylor & Francis, Boca Raton
  7. Wacholder S, Chanock S, Garcia-Closas M, El Ghormli L, Rothman N (2004) Assessing the probability that a positive report is false: an approach for molecular epidemiology studies. J Nation Cancer Inst 96:434鈥?42 CrossRef
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Environment
  Environment
  Atmospheric Protection, Air Quality Control and Air Pollution
  Waste Water Technology, Water Pollution Control, Water Management and Aquatic Pollution
  Industrial Pollution Prevention
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1614-7499

文摘

We argued recently that the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) are valuable metrics to include during null hypothesis significance testing: They inform the researcher about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes actually being true. Although commonly misunderstood, a reported p value estimates only the probability of obtaining the results or more extreme results if the null hypothesis of no effect was true. Calculations of the more informative PPV and NPV require a priori estimate of the probability (R). The present document discusses challenges of estimating R.