Flood risk, climate change and settlement development: a micro-scale assessment of Austrian municipalities

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• 作者：Lukas Löschner ; Mathew Herrnegger ; Benjamin Apperl…
• 关键词：Flood risk assessment ; Flood damage ; Hazard exposure ; Climate change ; Settlement development
• 刊名：Regional Environmental Change
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：17
• 期：2
• 页码：311-322
• 全文大小：3075KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Climate Change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Oceanography; Geography, general; Regional/Spatial Science; Nature Conservation;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1436-378X
• 卷排序：17

文摘

This paper analyses the influence of climate change and land development on future flood risk for selected Austrian flood-prone municipalities. As part of an anticipatory micro-scale risk assessment we simulated four different inundation scenarios for current and future 100- and 300-year floods (which included a climate change allowance), developed scenarios of future settlement growth in floodplains and evaluated changes in flood damage potentials and flood risk until the year 2030. Findings show that both climate change and settlement development significantly increase future levels of flood risk. However, the respective impacts vary strongly across the different cases. The analysis indicates that local conditions, such as the topography of the floodplain, the spatial allocation of vulnerable land uses or the type of land development (e.g. residential, commercial or industrial) in the floodplain are the key determinants of the respective effects of climate change and land development on future levels of flood risk. The case study analysis highlights the general need for a more comprehensive consideration of the local determinants of flood risk in order to increase the effectiveness of an adaptive management of flood risk dynamics.