Determinants of summer weather extremes over the Canadian prairies: implications for long-lead grain forecasting

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• 作者：E. Ray Garnett ; Madhav L. Khandekar
• 关键词：Teleconnections ; Solar influence ; Climatic outlooks ; Canadian prairies
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：March 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：76
• 期：2
• 页码：1183-1204
• 全文大小：545 KB
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• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Civil Engineering
  Environmental Management
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0840

文摘

To assess the drivers of weather extremes over the Canadian prairies, a data matrix of 19 predictor and 11 predictands types was created at the monthly timeframe to explore drought severity, summer precipitation, and summer temperature. Applying composite, correlation, and regression techniques, a comprehensive data analysis produced a suite of composites and regression models for providing climatic outlooks a few weeks to a few months in advance of the critical May–July growing season for spring wheat. This was done for the prairies as a whole and for four agricultural ecological (agro-eco) zones. Among the most important predictors were the Madden–Julian Oscillation (a tropical atmospheric oscillation between 20°E and 10°W longitude) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation a slow moving oscillation covering the entire Pacific Basin both linking large-scale predictors and solar parameters like the Averaged Planetary Index. An empirical approach, using accumulated monthly values of atmosphere–ocean indices, provides useful guidance for the forecasting of summer precipitation and temperature, and hence, grain yields with a lead time of a few weeks to a few months.