Climate-change driven range shifts of anchovy biomass projected by bio-physical coupling individual based model in the marginal seas of East Asia

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• 作者：Sukgeun Jung ; Ig-Chan Pang ; Joon-ho Lee ; Kyunghwan Lee
• 关键词：pacific anchovy ; Engraulis japonicus ; individual ; based model ; climate change
• 刊名：Ocean Science Journal
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：December 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：51
• 期：4
• 页码：563-580
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Oceanography; Marine & Freshwater Sciences; Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution;
• 出版者：Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute and The Korean Society of Oceanography
• ISSN：2005-7172
• 卷排序：51

文摘

Recent studies in the western North Pacific reported a declining standing stock biomass of anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and a climate-driven southward shift of anchovy catch in Korean waters. We investigated the effects of a warming ocean on the latitudinal shift of anchovy catch by developing and applying individual-based models (IBMs) based on a regional ocean circulation model and an IPCC climate change scenario. Despite the greater uncertainty, our two IBMs projected that, by the 2030s, the strengthened Tsushima warm current in the Korea Strait and the East Sea, driven by global warming, and the subsequent confinement of the relatively cold water masses within the Yellow Sea will decrease larval anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea, but will increase it in the Korea Strait and the East Sea. The decreasing trend of anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea was reproduced by our models, but further validation and enhancement of the models is required together with extended ichthyoplankton surveys to understand and reliably project range shifts of anchovy and the impacts such range shifts will have on the marine ecosystems and fisheries in the region.