A Review of Recent Updates of Sea-Level Projections at Global and Regional Scales

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• 作者：A. B. A. Slangen ; F. Adloff ; S. Jevrejeva ; P. W. Leclercq…
• 关键词：Sea ; level change ; Regional sea ; level change ; Sea ; level projections ; Ice sheets ; Glaciers ; Terrestrial water storage ; Mediterranean
• 刊名：Surveys in Geophysics
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：January 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：38
• 期：1
• 页码：385-406
• 全文大小：
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Geophysics/Geodesy; Earth Sciences, general; Astronomy, Observations and Techniques;
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0956
• 卷排序：38

文摘

Sea-level change (SLC) is a much-studied topic in the area of climate research, integrating a range of climate science disciplines, and is expected to impact coastal communities around the world. As a result, this field is rapidly moving, and the knowledge and understanding of processes contributing to SLC is increasing. Here, we discuss noteworthy recent developments in the projection of SLC contributions and in the global mean and regional sea-level projections. For the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to SLC, earlier estimates have been confirmed in recent research, but part of the source of this contribution has shifted from dynamics to surface melting. New insights into dynamic discharge processes and the onset of marine ice sheet instability increase the projected range for the Antarctic contribution by the end of the century. The contribution from both ice sheets is projected to increase further in the coming centuries to millennia. Recent updates of the global glacier outline database and new global glacier models have led to slightly lower projections for the glacier contribution to SLC (7–17 cm by 2100), but still project the glaciers to be an important contribution. For global mean sea-level projections, the focus has shifted to better estimating the uncertainty distributions of the projection time series, which may not necessarily follow a normal distribution. Instead, recent studies use skewed distributions with longer tails to higher uncertainties. Regional projections have been used to study regional uncertainty distributions, and regional projections are increasingly being applied to specific regions, countries, and coastal areas.