A refined risk explicit interval linear programming approach for optimal watershed load reduction with objective-constraint uncertainty tradeoff analysis

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• 作者：Pingjian Yang ; Feifei Dong ; Yong Liu…
• 关键词：refined risk explicit interval linear programming ; decision making ; objective ; constraint uncertainty tradeoff ; aspiration level ; Lake Qionghai Watershed
• 刊名：Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：February 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：10
• 期：1
• 页码：129-140
• 全文大小：407 KB
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• 作者单位：Pingjian Yang (1) (2)
  Feifei Dong (1)
  Yong Liu (1) (3)
  Rui Zou (4)
  Xing Chen (1)
  Guo Huaicheng (1)
  
  1. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University, the Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education, Beijing, 100871, China
  2. School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA
  3. Yunnan International Center for Pleantu Lakes, Kunming, 650034, China
  4. Tetra Tech, Inc., Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA
  
• 刊物主题：Environment, general;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：2095-221X

文摘

To enhance the effectiveness of watershed load reduction decision making, the Risk Explicit Interval Linear Programming (REILP) approach was developed in previous studies to address decision risks and system returns. However, REILP lacks the capability to analyze the tradeoff between risks in the objective function and constraints. Therefore, a refined REILP model is proposed in this study to further enhance the decision support capability of the REILP approach for optimal watershed load reduction. By introducing a tradeoff factor (伪) into the total risk function, the refined REILP can lead to different compromises between risks associated with the objective functions and the constraints. The proposed model was illustrated using a case study that deals with uncertainty-based optimal load reduction decision making for Lake Qionghai Watershed, China. A risk tradeoff curve with different values of 伪 was presented to decision makers as a more flexible platform to support decision formulation. The results of the standard and refined REILP model were compared under 11 aspiration levels. The results demonstrate that, by applying the refined REILP, it is possible to obtain solutions that preserve the same constraint risk as that in the standard REILP but with lower objective risk, which can provide more effective guidance for decision makers. Keywords refined risk explicit interval linear programming decision making objective-constraint uncertainty tradeoff aspiration level Lake Qionghai Watershed