A cascading flash flood guidance system: development and application in Yunnan Province, China

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• 作者：Ziyue Zeng ; Guoqiang Tang ; Di Long ; Chao Zeng ; Meihong Ma ; Yang Hong…
• 关键词：Flash flood forecasting ; Cascading flash flood guidance system ; Flash Flood Potential Index ; Flash Flood Hazard Index ; Flash Flood Risk Index
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：December 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：84
• 期：3
• 页码：2071-2093
• 全文大小：3,582 KB
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Civil Engineering
  Environmental Management
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0840
• 卷排序：84

文摘

Yunnan Province, located in Southwest China, suffers from massive flash flood hazards due to its complex mountainous hydrometeorology. However, traditional flash flood forecasting approaches can hardly provide an effective and comprehensive guide. Aiming to build a multilevel guidance system of flash flood warning for Yunnan, this study develops a Cascading Flash Flood Guidance (CFFG) system, progressively from the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI), the Flash Flood Hazard Index (FFHI) to the Flash Flood Risk Index (FFRI). First, land cover and vegetation cover data from MODIS products, the Harmonized World Soil Database soil map, and SRTM slope data are used in generating a composite FFPI map. In this process, an integrated approach of the analytic hierarchy process and the information entropy theory is used as a weighting method. Then, three standardized rainfall amounts (average daily amount in flood seasons, maximum 6 h and maximum 24 h amount) are added to derive FFHI. Further inclusion of GDP, population and flood prevention measures as vulnerability factors for the FFRI enabled prediction of the flash flood risk. The spatial patterns of the CFFG indices indicate that counties in east Yunnan are most susceptible to flash floods, which agrees with the distribution of observed flash flood events. Compared to other approaches, the CFFG system could be a useful prototype in mapping characteristics of China’s flash floods in a cascading manner (i.e., potential, hazard and risk) for users at different administrative levels (e.g., town, county, province and even nation).