A simple estimation of equatorial Pacific response from windstress to untangle Indian Ocean Dipole and Basin influences on El Niño

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• 作者：T. Izumo ; J. Vialard ; H. Dayan ; M. Lengaigne ; I. Suresh
• 关键词：El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ; Equatorial Pacific Ocean dynamics ; Convolution to impulse response of a linear system ; Atmospheric teleconnections ; Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) and Basin ; wide warming/cooling (IOB) ; Linear Continuously Stratified model (LCS)
• 刊名：Climate Dynamics
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：April 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：46
• 期：7-8
• 页码：2247-2268
• 全文大小：4,760 KB
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• 作者单位：T. Izumo (1) (4)
  J. Vialard (1)
  H. Dayan (1)
  M. Lengaigne (1) (2)
  I. Suresh (3)
  
  1. LOCEAN, IPSL, Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, France
  4. LOCEAN - Case 100, Université P. et M. Curie, 4, Place Jussieu, 75252, Paris Cedex 05, France
  2. Indo-French Cell for Water Sciences, IISc-NIO-IITM-IRD Joint International Laboratory, NIO, Dona Paula, India
  3. CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), Goa, India
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Meteorology and Climatology
  Oceanography
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1432-0894

文摘

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies that develop in spring in the central Pacific are crucial to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) development. Here we use a linear, continuously stratified, ocean model, and its impulse response to a typical ENSO wind pattern, to derive a simple equation that relates those SST anomalies to the low frequency evolution of zonal wind stress anomalies τ _x over the preceding months. We show that SST anomalies can be approximated as a “causal” filter of τ _x , τ _x (t − t ₁) − c τ _x (t − t ₂), where t₁ is ~1–2 months, t₂ − t₁ is ~6 months and c ranges between 0 and 1 depending on τ _x location (i.e. SST anomalies are approximately proportional to the wind stress anomalies 1–2 months earlier minus a fraction of the wind stress anomalies 7–8 months earlier). The first term represents the fast oceanic response, while the second one represents the delayed negative feedback associated with wave reflection at both boundaries. This simple approach is then applied to assess the relative influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and of the Indian Ocean Basin-wide warming/cooling (IOB) in favouring the phase transition of ENSO. In agreement with previous studies, Atmospheric General Circulation Model experiments indicate that the equatorial Pacific wind responses to the IOD eastern and (IOB-related) western poles tend to cancel out during autumn. The abrupt demise of the IOD eastern pole thus favours an abrupt development of the IOB-cooling-forced westerly wind anomalies in the western Pacific in winter–spring (vice versa for an IOB warming). As expected from the simple SST equation above, the faster wind change fostered by the IOD enhances the central Pacific SST response as compared to the sole IOB influence. The IOD thereby enhances the IOB tendency to favour ENSO phase transition. As the IOD is more independent of ENSO than the IOB, this external influence could contribute to enhanced ENSO predictability.