Enhanced palaeoseismic succession at the Concud Fault (Iberian Chain, Spain): new insights for seismic hazard assessment

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• 作者：José L. Simón ; Luis E. Arlegui ; Lope Ezquerro ; Paloma Lafuente…
• 关键词：Concud Fault ; Iberian Chain ; Active tectonics ; Palaeoseismology ; Seismic hazard ; Intraplate seismicity
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：February 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：80
• 期：3
• 页码：1967-1993
• 全文大小：11,658 KB
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• 作者单位：José L. Simón (1)
  Luis E. Arlegui (1)
  Lope Ezquerro (1)
  Paloma Lafuente (1)
  Carlos L. Liesa (1)
  Aránzazu Luzón (1)
  
  1. Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad de Zaragoza, C/ Pedro Cerbuna 12, 50009, Zaragoza, Spain
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Civil Engineering
  Environmental Management
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0840

文摘

A new trench excavated at the southern sector of the Concud Fault provided evidence of three palaeoseismic events dated to ca. 21, 18 and 13–3 ka BP, respectively. The two youngest ones had not been detected in previous studies. The results extend the total recorded palaeoseismic succession for the fault: eleven events since ca. 74 ka BP to the present day, with an average recurrence period between 7.1 ± 3.5 and 8.0 ± 3.3 ka; total net accumulated slip of about 20.5 m, with average coseismic slip of 1.9 m. The displacement pattern shows alternating periods of fast slip (up to 0.53 mm/a) and slow slip (0.13 mm/a), resulting in average slip rate of 0.29 mm/a. Using this palaeoseismic information, as well as the potential magnitude previously attributed to the characteristic earthquake at the Concud Fault (M ≈ 6.5–6.6), a simple probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been performed. The estimated probability of occurrence of the characteristic earthquake within the next 500-year period ranges from 2.3 to 26.1 %, according to distinct hypotheses on the elapsed time derived from the uncertainty about the age of the youngest event. Keywords Concud Fault Iberian Chain Active tectonics Palaeoseismology Seismic hazard Intraplate seismicity