Design and validation of an early scoring system for predicting early outcomes of type III biliary atresia after Kasai’s operation

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• 作者：Chen Zhen ; Qiao Guoliang ; Ma Lishuang ; Zhang Zhen…
• 关键词：Early scoring system ; Logistic model ; Biliary atresia ; Prognosis ; Kasai’s operation
• 刊名：Pediatric Surgery International
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：June 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：31
• 期：6
• 页码：535-542
• 全文大小：479 KB
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• 作者单位：Chen Zhen (1) (2)
  Qiao Guoliang (1)
  Ma Lishuang (1)
  Zhang Zhen (1)
  Wang Chen (1)
  Zhang Jun (1)
  Liu Shuli (1)
  Guan Kaoping (1)
  Liu Chao (1)
  Yang Xuan (1)
  Li Long (1)
  
  1. Department of Pediatric Surgery, Capital Institute of Pediatrics-Peking University Teaching Hospital, Yabao Road 2#, Chaoyang, Beijing, 100021, People’s Republic of China
  2. Medical Department, Peking University, Beijing, 100000, People’s Republic of China
  
• 刊物类别：Medicine
• 刊物主题：Medicine & Public Health
  Pediatrics
  Surgery
  Pediatric Surgery
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1437-9813

文摘

Background/purpose The purpose of this study was to determine reliable predictors of outcome of biliary atresia (BA) after Kasai’s operation. Patients and methods This study included two consecutive stages of infants with biliary atresia. First stage, 200 BA cases who underwent Kasai’s operation at our institution between May 2006 and May 2010 were retrospectively reviewed. In the first stage, we wanted to calculate a clinical scoring system by logistic regression. For cut-off determination, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was employed. Second stage (validation of scoring system), we used our scoring system to prospectively predict the outcomes of patients underwent a Kasai operation from inspecting the accuracy of our system. Results Early cholangitis, age at operation, JC time, post-operative TB, DB, AST, ALT and surgical method entered into our scoring system. The most reliable cut-offs determined by ROC analysis were 7.71 (sensitivity: 86.0?%, specificity: 98.0?%). We used our scoring system to predict the prognosis of the 15 BA patients and found that 13 of 15 patients were correctly predicted at the cut-off value of 7.71. Conclusion Our scoring system is considered to be a reliable and useful predictor of the prognosis of biliary atresia.