Latent class modeling of markers of day-specific fertility

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• 作者：Francesca Bassi ; Bruno Scarpa
• 关键词：Menstrual cycles ; Cervical mucus ; Peak day ; Multilevel latent class models ; Multilevel latent growth mixture models
• 刊名：METRON
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：August 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：73
• 期：2
• 页码：263-276
• 全文大小：455 KB
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• 作者单位：Francesca Bassi (1)
  Bruno Scarpa (1)
  
  1. Statistics Department, University of Padova, Padua, Italy
  
• 刊物主题：Statistics, general; Statistical Theory and Methods;
• 出版者：Springer Milan
• ISSN：2281-695X

文摘

There is a considerable interest in predicting the fertile days in a woman’s menstrual cycles in couples desiring a pregnancy and among those wishing to avoid conception by periodic abstinence. Cervical mucus detection is potentially an accurate marker of fertile days. It is therefore of great interest to assess the magnitude of heterogeneity among women and among cycles and among cycles of a given woman, in the evolution in time of the mucus secretions detected during an interval of potential fertility and defined relative to ovulation. In this paper, we study the problem of heterogeneity in cervical mucus hydration at various times relative to the mucus peak, both among cycles and among women, specifying and estimating appropriate multilevel latent class models for longitudinal data. Results showed that heterogeneity in mucus evolution among cycles and women is non-negligible. Model estimates identified different mucus patterns for groups of cycles and women, and the characteristics of the cycles and the women which influence mucus symptom evolution over time. Keywords Menstrual cycles Cervical mucus Peak day Multilevel latent class models Multilevel latent growth mixture models