Simulating urban expansion and scenario prediction using a cellular automata urban growth model, SLEUTH, through a case study of Karaj City, Iran

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• 作者：Yousef Sakieh ; Bahman Jabbarian Amiri…
• 关键词：Urban growth modeling ; Urban expansion ; Cellular automata ; SLEUTH ; Karaj ; Iran
• 刊名：Journal of Housing and the Built Environment
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：November 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：30
• 期：4
• 页码：591-611
• 全文大小：2,847 KB
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• 作者单位：Yousef Sakieh (1)
  Bahman Jabbarian Amiri (2)
  Afshin Danekar (2)
  Jahangir Feghhi (3)
  Sadeq Dezhkam (2)
  
  1. Department of the Environment, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources Gorgan, Golestan, Iran
  2. Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
  3. Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resource, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Geography
  Housing
  Human Geography
  Landscape, Regional and Urban Planning
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-7772

文摘

Understanding, analysis, monitoring and modeling of urban growth evolution as a major driving force of land use/land cover transformation, especially in developing countries, is of great importance for land managers in the process of sustainable development. Using spatial predictive models and change detection techniques can provide an additional level of knowledge of the causes and impacts of urban growth mechanisms, which finally provide comprehensive insight into urban chronology. Karaj, the capital of Alborz province, has been experiencing a substantial increase in total area of urban environments mainly due to its socioeconomic attractions during the last three decades. The present work aims to reveal how the historical trend of the urban growth can affect its future spatial pattern. For conducting this study, the SLEUTH cellular automata urban growth model was executed via three calibration steps including coarse, fine and final. Relying on the calibrated model, dynamics of the Karaj City were predicted under its historical trend as well as two different scenarios including compact and extensive growth up to year 2040. According to the findings of the present study, while extensive growth option indicates the most consumption of the vacant lands, the compact scenario dictates infill form of the urban growth in addition to saving spaces. Finally, urban growth forecasting based on its historical trend illustrates that total area of the human-constructed elements will be in the middle of other two predictive scenarios. Keywords Urban growth modeling Urban expansion Cellular automata SLEUTH Karaj Iran