Scenario-based community flood risk assessment: a case study of Taining county town, Fujian province, China

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Weijiang Li ; Bo Xu ; Jiahong Wen
• 关键词：Flood ; Community ; Scenario ; Risk assessment ; PGIS
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：May 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：82
• 期：1
• 页码：193-208
• 全文大小：2,096 KB
• 参考文献：Apel H, Aronica G, Kreibich H et al (2009) Flood risk analyses—how detailed do we need to be? Nat Hazards 49:79–98CrossRef
  Arnell N (1989) Expected annual damages and uncertainties in flood frequency estimation. J Water Resour Plan Manag 115:94–107CrossRef
  Arrighi C, Brugioni M, Castelli F et al (2013) Urban micro-scale flood risk estimation with parsimonious hydraulic modelling and census data. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:1375–1391CrossRef
  De Moel H, Jongman B, Kreibich H et al (2015) Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 20:1–26CrossRef
  Dyck J, Willems P (2013) Probabilistic flood risk assessment over large geographical regions. Water Resour Res 49:3330–3344CrossRef
  Gilles D, Young N, Schroeder H et al (2012) Inundation mapping initiatives of the Iowa Flood Center: statewide coverage and detailed urban flooding analysis. Water 4:85–106CrossRef
  Hall J, Dawson R, Sayers P et al (2003) A methodology for national-scale flood risk assessment. Proc ICE-Water Marit Eng 156:235–247CrossRef
  Harvey G, Thorne C, Cheng X et al (2009) Qualitative analysis of future flood risk in the Taihu Basin, China. J Flood Risk Manag 2:85–100CrossRef
  Huang F (2012) Flood disaster situation and cause analysis in Taining county, Fujian province in 2010. China Flood Drought Manag 22:58–61 (in Chinese)
  IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of working groups I and II of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1–594
  Kaplan S, Garrick B (1981) On the quantitative definition of risk. Risk Anal 1:11–27CrossRef
  Merz B, Thieken A, Gocht M (2007) Flood risk mapping at the local scale: concepts and challenges. Flood risk management in Europe. Springer, Netherlands, pp 231–251CrossRef
  Merz B, Kreibich H, Schwarze R et al (2010) Review article “Assessment of economic flood damage”. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10:1697–1724CrossRef
  Peters-Guarín G, van Westen C, Montoya L (2005) Community-based Flood Risk Assessment using GIS for the Town of San Sebastian, Guatemala. J Hum Secur Dev 1:29–49
  Petrow T, Thieken A, Kreibich H et al (2006) Improvements on flood alleviation in Germany: lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002. Environ Manage 38:717–732CrossRef
  Rambaldi G, Kyem P, McCall M et al (2006) Participatory spatial information management and communication in developing countries. Electron J Inf Syst Dev Ctries 25:1–9
  Smith D (1994) Flood damage estimation—a review of urban stage-damage curves and loss functions. Water SA 20:231–238
  Tran P, Shaw R, Chantry G et al (2009) GIS and local knowledge in disaster management: a case study of flood risk mapping in Viet Nam. Disasters 33:152–169CrossRef
  UNISDR (2005) Hyogo framework for action 2005–2015: building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters. In: World conference on disaster reduction, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
  UNISDR (2015) Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015–2030. In: Third world conference on disaster risk reduction (3WCDRR), Sendai, Japan
  Wang Y, Li Z, Tang Z et al (2011) A GIS-based spatial multi-criteria approach for flood risk assessment in the Dongting Lake Region, Hunan, Central China. Water Resour Manage 25:3465–3484CrossRef
  White I, Kingston R, Barker A (2010) Participatory geographic information systems and public engagement within flood risk management. J Flood risk Manag 3:337–346CrossRef
  Wind H, Nierop T, Blois C et al (1999) Analysis of flood damages from the 1993 and 1995 Meuse floods. Water Resour Res 35:3459–3465CrossRef
  Winsemius H, Van Beek L, Jongman B et al (2013) A framework for global river flood risk assessments. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17:1871–1892CrossRef
  Yin J, Yu D, Yin Z et al (2013) Multiple scenario analyses of Huangpu River flooding using a 1D/2D coupled flood inundation model. Nat Hazards 66:577–589CrossRef
  Zhao Q, Wang J, Xu S et al (2010) Flood risk assessment of coastal community: a case study in Longwan District of Wenzhou City. Geogr Res 29:665–674 (in Chinese)
  Zhu J (2010) Urban flash-flood risk assessment: a case study in Wenshan City, Yunnan. Geogr Res 29:655–664 (in Chinese)
  
• 作者单位：Weijiang Li (1)
  Bo Xu (2)
  Jiahong Wen (1)
  
  1. Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, 200234, China
  2. Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, California State University, San Bernardino, CA, 92407, USA
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Civil Engineering
  Environmental Management
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0840

文摘

Community-based flood risk assessment has gained increasing attention as communities are the first responder to disasters and thus the key player of disaster risk reduction. In this study, using a scenario-based risk model and the combination of 1D/2D hydrodynamic model and participatory geographic information system, a methodology for flood risk assessment at the community level is put forward, including flood hazard assessment, exposure analysis, vulnerability assessment, and loss estimation and risk profiling. With this methodology, a set of potential damage/loss scenarios with various probabilities of flood occurrence can be established, and the spatial distribution of the loss in different probabilities can be mapped as well. It is proved that the proposed methodology is effective in flood risk assessment at the community level. The case study of Taining county town shows that the threats and impacts of flood disaster on the community are significant, and it is necessary to take structural and non-structural measures to reduce the flood risk.