Long-range precipitation forecasts using paleoclimate reconstructions in the western United States

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Christopher Allen Carrier ; Ajay Kalra ; Sajjad Ahmad
• 关键词：Precipitation ; Oscillations ; Paleoclimate reconstruction ; Forecast ; KStar
• 刊名：Journal of Mountain Science
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：April 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：13
• 期：4
• 页码：614-632
• 全文大小：2,107 KB
• 参考文献：Ahmad MM, Ghumman AR, Ahmad S, et al. (2010) Estimation of a unique pair of Nash model parameters: an optimization approach. Water Resources Management 24(12): 2971–2989. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9590-3CrossRef
  Ahmad S, Simonovic S (2005) An Artificial Neural Network model for generatinghydrographfrom hydro-meteorological parameters. Journal of Hydrology 315(1-4): 236–251. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.03.032CrossRef
  Anderson MT, Woosley LH (2005) Water availability for the western United States-Key scientific challenges. U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1261. p85.
  Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology (2011) S.O.I. (Southern Oscillation Index) Archives–1876 to present. Commonwealth of Australia 2010, Bureau of Meteorology. Available at: http://​www.​bom.​gov.​au/​climate/​current/​soihtm1.​shtml.​ (Assessed on May 2014).
  Biondi F, Gershunov A, Cayan DR (2001) North Pacific Decadal Climate Variability since 1661. Journal of Climate 14(1):5–10.CrossRef
  Brown DP, Comrie AC (2004) A winter precipitation’ dipole’ in the western United States associated with multidecadal ENSO variability. Geophysical Research Letters 31(9): L09203, 1–4.
  Carrier C, Kalra A, Ahmad S (2013) Using Paleo Reconstructions to Improve Streamflow Forecast Lead Time in the Western United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 9(6): 1351–1366. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12088CrossRef
  Casey TM (1998) Assessment of a seasonal forecast model. Australian Meteorological Magazine 47: 103–111.
  Cayan DR, Dettinger MD, Diaz HF, et al. (1998) Decadal Variability of Precipitation over Western North America. Journal of Climate 11(12): 3148–66.CrossRef
  Choubin B, Khalighi-Sigaroodi S, Malekian A, et al. (2014) Drought forecasting in a semi-arid watershed using climate signals: a neuro-fuzzy modeling approach. Journal of Mountain Science 11(6): 1593–1605. DOI: 10.1007/s11629-014-3020-6CrossRef
  Cleary JG, Trigg LE (1995) K*: An instance-based learner using an entropic distance measure. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Machine Learning.
  Currie RG (1996) Variance contribution of luni-solar (Mn) and solar cycle (Sc) signals to climate data. International Journal of Climatology 16 (12): 1343–1364.CrossRef
  D’Arrigo R, Villalba R, Wiles G (2001) Tree-ring estimates of Pacific decadal climate variability. Climate Dynamics 18(3-4): 219–24.CrossRef
  Dawadi S, Ahmad S (2012) Changing climatic conditions in the Colorado River Basin: Implications for water resources management. Journal of Hydrology 430: 127–141. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.02.010CrossRef
  Dawadi S, Ahmad S (2013) Evaluating the impact of demand-side management on water resources under changing climatic conditions and increasing population. Journal of Environmental Management 114: 261–275. DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.10.015CrossRef
  De Jongh ILM, Verhoest NEC, De Troch FP (2006)Ananlysis of a 105-year time series of precipitation observed at Uccle, Belgium. International Journal of Climatology 26: 2023–2039.
  Dettinger MD, Cayan DR, Diaz HF, et al. (1998) North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales. Journal of Climate 11(12): 3095–111.CrossRef
  Elshorbagy A, Corzo G, Srinivasulu S, et al.(2010) Experimental investigation of the predictive capabilities of data driven modeling techniques in hydrology -Part 2: Applications in Hydrologic Earth Systems Science 14(10): 1943–61.
  Enfield DB, Mestas-Nuñez AM, Trimble PJ (2001) The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophysical Research Letters 28(10): 2077–80.CrossRef
  ESRL (2011) Create a monthly or seasonal time series of climate variables. Earth System Research Laboratory. Available at: http://​www.​esrl.​noaa.​gov/​psd/​data/​(Assessed on May 2014)
  Forsee W, Ahmad S (2011) Evaluating urban stormwater infrastructure design in response to projected climate change. ASCE Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 16: 865–873. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000383CrossRef
  Garbrecht JD, Rossel FE (2002) Decade-Scale Precipitation Increase in Great Plains at End of 20th Century. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 7(1): 64–75.CrossRef
  Garfin GM, Hughes MK (1996) Eastern Oregon divisional precipitation and Palmer drought severity index from tree-rings. Final Report to U.S. Forest Service, Cooperative Agreement. PNW-90-174. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona. Tucson, Arizona, USA.
  Georgakakos KP, Hudlow MD (1984) Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Techniques for Use in Hydrologic Forecasting. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 65(11): 1186–200.CrossRef
  Gray ST, Jackson ST, Betancourt JL (2004a) Tree-ring based reconstructions of interannual to decadal scale precipitation variability for northeastern Utah since 1226 A.D. Journal of theAmericanWater Resources Association 40(4): 947–60.CrossRef
  Gray ST, Graumlich LJ, Betancourt JL, et al. (2004b) A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D. Geophysical Research Letters 31(12): L12205, 1-4.CrossRef
  Gray ST, Betancourt JL, Fastie CL, et al. (2003) Patterns and sources of multidecadal oscillations in drought-sensitive tree-ring records from the central and southern Rocky Mountains. Geophysical Research Letters 30(6): 1316.CrossRef
  Grissino-Mayer H (1996) A 2129-year reconstruction of precipitation for northwestern New Mexico, USA. pp. 191–204. In: Dean JS, Meko DM, and Swetnam TW (Eds.), Tree Rings, Environment and Humanity: Proceedings of the International Conference, Tucson, AZ, May 17-21, 1994. Radiocarbon, Tucson, AZ, USA.
  Grissino-Mayer HD, Baisan CH, Swetnam TW (1998) A Multicentury Reconstruction of Precipitation for Great Sand Dunes National Monument, Southwestern Colorado. Mid-continent Ecological Science Center.
  Guttman NB, Quayle RG (1996) A historical perspective of U.S. climate divisions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77(2): 293–303.CrossRef
  Gutzler DS, Kann DM, Thornbrugh C (2002) Modulation of ENSO-based long-lead outlooks of Southwestern U.S. winter precipitation by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Weather Forecast 17(6): 1163–72.
  Hughes MK, Graumlich LJ (1996) Climatic variations and forcing mechanisms of the last 2000 years. In: Multi-millenial dendroclimatic studies from the western United States. NATO ASI Series, 141. pp. 109–124.
  Hunter T, Tootle G, Piechota T (2006) Oceanic-atmospheric variability and western U.S. snowfall. Geophysical Research Letters 33(13): L13706.CrossRef
  Hurrell JW (2011) Monthly Station Based NAO Index. National Center for Atmospheric Research. Available at: http://​www.​ cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/indices.data.html#naostatmon (Assessed on May 2014).
  JISAO (2011) PDO Index.Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean. Available at: http://​jisao.​washington.​ edu/pdo/PDO.latest (Assessed on May 2014).
  Jones PD, Mann ME (2004) Climate over past millennia. Reviews of Geophysics 42(2): RG2002, 1–42.CrossRef
  Kalra A, Ahmad S (2009)Using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations for long lead-time stream flow forecasting. Water Resources Research 45(3): W03413. DOI: 10.1029/2008WR006855
  Kalra A, Ahmad S (2011) Evaluating changes and estimating seasonal precipitation for the Colorado River Basin using a stochastic nonparametric disaggregation technique. Water Resources Research 47: W05555. DOI: 10.1029/2010WR009118CrossRef
  Kalra A, Ahmad S (2012) Estimating annual precipitation for the Colorado River Basin using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. Water Resources Research 48(6): W06527. DOI: 10.1029/2011WR010667CrossRef
  Kalra A, Ahmad S, Nayak A (2013a)Increasing streamflow forecast lead time for snowmelt-driven catchment based on large-scale climate patterns. Advances in Water Resources 53: 150–162. DOI:10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.11.003
  Kalra A, Li LH, Li X, et al. (2013b) Improving streamflow forecast lead time using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations for Kaidu river basin, Xinjiang, China. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 18(8): 1031–1040.CrossRef
  Kalra A, Miller WP, Lamb KW et al. (2013c) Using large-scale climatic patterns for improving long lead time streamflow forecasts for Gunnison and San Juan River Basins. Hydrological Processes 27(11): 1543–1559. DOI:10.1002/hyp.9236CrossRef
  Lee S, Klein A, Over T (2004) Effects of the El Niño-southern oscillation on temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent and resulting streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande river basin. Hydrologic Processes 18(6): 1053–71.CrossRef
  Luterbacher J, Xoplaki E, Dietrich D, et al. (2001) Extending North Atlantic Oscillation reconstructions back to 1500. Atmospheric Science Letters 2(1-4): 129–139.CrossRef
  MacDonald GM, Case RA (2005) Variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over the past millennium. Geophysical Research Letters 32(8): 1–4.CrossRef
  Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, et al. (1997) A pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(6): 1069–79.CrossRef
  McCabe GJ, Dettinger MD (1999) Decadal variations in the strength of ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western United States. International Journal of Climatology 19(13): 1399–410.CrossRef
  McCabe GJ, Palecki MA, Betancourt J (2004) Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences U.S.A. 101(12): 4136–41.CrossRef
  Melesse AM, Ahmad S, McClain ME, et al. (2011) Suspended sediment load prediction of river systems: an artificial neural networks approach. Agricultural Water Management 98(5): 855–866. DOI:10.1016/j.agwat.2010.12.012CrossRef
  Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, et al. (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Transactions of the ASABE 50(3): 885–900.CrossRef
  NCDC (2011) World data center for paleoclimatology–climate reconstructions. National Climatic Data Center. Available at: http://​www.​ncdc.​noaa.​gov/​paleo/​recons.​html (Assessed on May 2014).
  Ni F, Cavazos T, Hughes MK, et al.(2002) Cool-season precipitation in the southwestern USA since AD 1000: Comparison of linear and nonlinear techniques for reconstruction. International Journal of Climatology 22(13): 1645–62.CrossRef
  NWS (2008) Long-Lead Forecast Tool Discussion and Analysis. National Weather Service Available at: http://​www.​cpc.​ncep.​ noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html (Assessed on June 2011).
  Partal T, Kisi O (2007) Wavelet and neuro-fuzzy conjunction model for precipitation forecasting. Journal of Hydrology 342(1-2): 199–212.CrossRef
  Pekarova P, Miklanek P, Pekar J (2003) Spatial and temporal runoff oscillation analysis of the main rivers of the world during the 19th-20th centuries. Journal of Hydrology 274 (1-4): 62–79.CrossRef
  Potts JM, Folland CK, Jolliffe IT, et al. (1996) Revised ‘LEPS’ scores for assessing climate model simulations and long-range forecasts. Journal of Climate 9(1): 34–53.CrossRef
  Prairie J, Nowak K, Rajagopalan B, et al. (2008) A stochastic nonparametric approach for streamflow generation combining observational and paleoreconstructed data. Water Resources Research 44(6): W06423.CrossRef
  Probst JL, Tardy Y (1987) Long range streamflow and world continental runoff flucutations since the beginning of this century. Journal of Hydrology 94(3-4): 289–311.CrossRef
  Puri S, Stephen H, Ahmad S (2011) Relating TRMM precipitation radar land surface backscatter response to soil moisture in the southern United States. Journal of Hydrology 402: 115–125. DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.03.012CrossRef
  Qaiser K, Ahmad S, Johnson W, et al. (2011) Evaluating the impact of water conservation on fate of outdoor water use: a study in an arid region. Journal of Environmental Management 92(8): 2061–2068. DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.03.031CrossRef
  Qaiser K, Ahmad S, Johnson W, et al. (2013) Evaluating Water Conservation and Reuse Policies using a Dynamic Water Balance Model. Environmental Management 51(2): 449–458. DOI: 10.1007/s00267-012-9965-8CrossRef
  Redmond KT, Koch RW (1991) Surface climate and streamflow variability in the western United States and their relationship to large-scale circulation indices. Water Resources Research 27(9): 2381–99.CrossRef
  Sagarika S, Kalra A, Ahmad S (2014) Evaluating the effect of persistence on long-term trends and analyzing step changes in streamflows of the continental United States, Journal of Hydrology 517: 36–53. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.002CrossRef
  Salzer MW, Kipfmueller KF (2005) Reconstructed temperature and precipitation on a millennial timescale from tree-rings in the southern Colorado Plateau, U.S.A. Climate Change 70(3): 465–87.CrossRef
  Shen C, Wang W, Gong W, et al. (2006) A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China. Geophysical Research Letters 33(3): L03702.CrossRef
  Shrestha E, Ahmad S, Johnson W, et al. (2012) The carbon footprint of water management policy options. Energy Policy 42: 201–212. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.11.074CrossRef
  Shrestha E, Ahmad S, Johnson W, et al. (2011) Carbon footprint of water conveyance verses desalination as alternatives to expand water supply. Desalination 280(1-3): 33–43. DOI: 10.1016/j.desal.2011.06.062CrossRef
  Solomatine DP, Maskey M, Shrestha DL (2008) Instance-based learning compared to other data-driven methods in hydrological forecasting. Hydrologic Processes 22(2): 275–87.CrossRef
  Stephen H, Ahmad S, Piechota T, et al. (2010) Relating surface backscatter response from TRMM precipitation radar to soil moisture: results over a semiarid region. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14(2): 193–204. DOI:10.5194/hess-14-193-2010CrossRef
  Terzi Ö (2007) Data mining approach for estimation evaporation from free water surface. Journal of Applied Science 7(4): 593–6.CrossRef
  Trenberth KE, Otto-Bliesner BL (2003) Toward integrated reconstruction of past climates. Science 300(5619): 589–91.CrossRef
  Venkatesan AK, Ahmad S, Johnson W, et al. (2011) System dynamics model to forecast salinity load to the Colorado River due to urbanization within the Las Vegas valley. Science of the Total Environment 409(13): 2616–2625. DOI: 10.1016/j. scitotenv.2011.03.018CrossRef
  Villalba R, Luckman BH, Boninsegna J, et al. (2011) Dendroclimatology from regional to continental scales: understanding regional processes to reconstruct large-scale climatic variations across the western Americas. Developments in Paleoenvironmental Research 11: 175–227.CrossRef
  Visbeck MH, Hurrell JW, Polvani L, et al. (2001) The North Atlantic oscillation: Past, present, and future. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences U.S.A. 98(23): 12876–7.CrossRef
  Witten IH, Frank E (2005) Data mining practical learning tools and techniques. 2nd Ed. San Francisco: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers.
  Zeng Z, Hsieh WW, Shabbar A, et al. (2011) Seasonal prediction of winter extreme precipitation over Canada by support vector regression. Hydrologic Earth Systems Science 15(1): 65–74.CrossRef
  
• 作者单位：Christopher Allen Carrier (1)
  Ajay Kalra (2) (3)
  Sajjad Ahmad (1)
  
  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, 4505 S. Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV, 89154-4015, USA
  2. Development Review Division, Clark County Public Works, 500 S. Grand Central Parkway, Las Vegas, NV, 89155, USA
  3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Southern Illinois University, 1230 Lincoln Drive, Carbondale, IL, 62901-6603, USA
  
• 刊物主题：Earth Sciences, general; Geography (general); Environment, general; Ecology;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1993-0321

文摘

Long-range precipitation forecasts are useful when managing water supplies. Oceanic-atmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence precipitation. Due to a longer cycle of some of the oscillations, a short instrumental record is a limitation in using them for long-range precipitation forecasts. The influence of oscillations over precipitation is observable within paleoclimate reconstructions; however, there have been no attempts to utilize these reconstructions in precipitation forecasting. A data-driven model, KStar, is used for obtaining long-range precipitation forecasts by extending the period of record through the use of reconstructions of oscillations. KStar is a nearest neighbor algorithm with an entropy-based distance function. Oceanic-atmospheric oscillation reconstructions include the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). Precipitation is forecasted for 20 climate divisions in the western United States. A 10-year moving average is applied to aid in the identification of oscillation phases. A lead time approach is used to simulate a one-year forecast, with a 10-fold cross-validation technique to test the models. Reconstructions are used from 1658-1899, while the observed record is used from 1900-2007. The model is evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR), Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE), and linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score (SK).The role of individual and coupled oscillations is evaluated by dropping oscillations in the model. The results indicate ‘good’ precipitation estimates using the KStar model. This modeling technique is expected to be useful for long-term water resources planning and management.