Ensemble simulation of land evapotranspiration in China based on a multi-forcing and multi-model approach

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• 作者：Jianguo Liu ; Binghao Jia ; Zhenghui Xie ; Chunxiang Shi
• 关键词：land evapotranspiration ; ensemble simulations ; multi ; forcing and multi ; model approach ; spatiotemporal variation ; uncertainty
• 刊名：Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：June 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：33
• 期：6
• 页码：673-684
• 全文大小：7,244 KB
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• 作者单位：Jianguo Liu (1) (2)
  Binghao Jia (2)
  Zhenghui Xie (2)
  Chunxiang Shi (3)
  
  1. High Performance Computing Center, School of Mathematics and Computational Science, Huaihua University, Huaihua, Hunan, 418008, China
  2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
  3. National Meteorological Information Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
  
• 刊物主题：Atmospheric Sciences; Meteorology; Geophysics/Geodesy;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1861-9533

文摘

In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model (LSM) simulations of land evapotranspiration (ET), we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS (Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences), Qian] and four LSMs (BATS, VIC, CLM3.0 and CLM3.5), to explore the trends and spatiotemporal characteristics of ET, as well as the spatiotemporal pattern of ET in response to climate factors over mainland China during 1982–2007. The results showed that various simulations of each member and their arithmetic mean (Ens Mean) could capture the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of ET sufficiently well, where they exhibited more significant spatial and seasonal variation in the ET compared with observation-based ET estimates (Obs MTE). For the mean annual ET, we found that the BATS forced by Princeton forcing overestimated the annual mean ET compared with Obs MTE for most of the basins in China, whereas the VIC forced by Princeton forcing showed underestimations. By contrast, the Ens Mean was closer to Obs MTE, although the results were underestimated over Southeast China. Furthermore, both the Obs MTE and Ens Mean exhibited a significant increasing trend during 1982–98; whereas after 1998, when the last big EI Ni˜no event occurred, the Ens Mean tended to decrease significantly between 1999 and 2007, although the change was not significant for Obs MTE. Changes in air temperature and shortwave radiation played key roles in the long-term variation in ET over the humid area of China, but precipitation mainly controlled the long-term variation in ET in arid and semi-arid areas of China.