Simulating interventions in graphical chain models for longitudinal data

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• 作者：Riccardo Borgoni (1)
  Peter W. F. Smith (2)
  Ann M. Berrington (2)
  
  1. Dipartimento di Economia Metodi Quantitativi e Strategie d鈥橧mpresa ; University of Milano Bicocca ; Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi ; 8 ; 20126聽 ; Milano ; Italy
  2. Department of Social Statistics and Demography ; and Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute ; University of Southampton ; Southampton ; UK
  
• 关键词：1970 British birth cohort study ; Dependency network ; Gibbs sampling ; Graphical chain models ; Intervention ; Mental health of teenage mothers
• 刊名：Quality & Quantity
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：March 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：49
• 期：2
• 页码：599-616
• 全文大小：1,596 KB
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• 刊物类别：Humanities, Social Sciences and Law
• 刊物主题：Social Sciences
  Methodology of the Social Sciences
  Social Sciences
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-7845

文摘

We propose a method to simulate the effects of an intervention to a complex system of interacting variables whose association structure is represented by a graphical chain model. Our approach takes into account both the direct and indirect effects of the intervention on the outcome of interest. We apply our approach to assess the effect of a policy to improve the mental health of teenage mothers using a model fitted to data from the 1970 British Birth Cohort Study. Since some of the conditional probabilities required are not directly available, we estimate them using a Gibbs sampler.