How much yield loss has been caused by extreme temperature stress to the irrigated rice production in China?

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• 作者：Pin Wang ; Zhao Zhang ; Yi Chen ; Xing Wei ; Boyan Feng ; Fulu Tao
• 刊名：Climatic Change
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：February 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：134
• 期：4
• 页码：635-650
• 全文大小：1,599 KB
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• 作者单位：Pin Wang (1)
  Zhao Zhang (1)
  Yi Chen (1)
  Xing Wei (1)
  Boyan Feng (1)
  Fulu Tao (2)
  
  1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology/Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, MOE/Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
  2. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Meteorology and Climatology
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-1480

文摘

Extreme temperature stress (ETS) is recognized as an important threat to the food supply in China. However, how much yield loss caused by ETS (YL_ETS) to the irrigated rice production still remains unclear. In this study, we provided a prototype for YL_ETS assessments by using a process-based crop model (MCWLA-Rice) with the ETS impacts explicitly parameterized, to help understand the spatio-temporal patterns of YL_ETS and the mechanism underlying the ETS impacts at a 0.5° × 0.5° grid scale in the major irrigated rice planting areas across China during 1981–2010. On the basis of the optimal 30 sets of parameters, the ensemble simulations indicated the following: Regions I (northeastern China) and III₂ (the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River) were considered to be the most vulnerable areas to ETS, with the medium YL_ETS of 18.4 and 12.9 %, respectively. Furthermore, large YL_ETS values (>10 %) were found in some portions of Region II (the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau), western Region III₁ (the Sichuan Basin), the middle of Region IV_ER (southern China cultivated by early rice), and the west and southeast of Region IV_LR (southern China cultivated by late rice). Over the past several decades, a significant decrease in YL_ETS was detected in most of Region I and in northern Region IV_LR (with the medians of −0.53 and −0.28 % year−1, respectively). However, a significant increase was found in most of Region III (including III₁ and III₂) and in Region IV_ER, particularly in the last decade (2001–2010). Overall, reduced cold stress has improved the conditions for irrigated rice production across large parts of China. Nevertheless, to improve the accuracy of YL_ETS estimations, more accurate yield loss functions and multimodel ensembles should be developed.