An integrated GIS-based interval-probabilistic programming model for land-use planning management under uncertainty—a case study at Suzhou, China

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• 作者：Shasha Lu ; Min Zhou ; Xingliang Guan…
• 关键词：Land ; use planning management ; Uncertainty ; Land suitability evaluation ; Geographic information system ; Interval ; probabilistic programming ; Suzhou
• 刊名：Environmental Science and Pollution Research
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：March 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：22
• 期：6
• 页码：4281-4296
• 全文大小：1,786 KB
• 参考文献：1. Bureau, SS (2012) Suzhou statistical yearbook of 2012. China Statistics Press, Beijing
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• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Environment
  Environment
  Atmospheric Protection, Air Quality Control and Air Pollution
  Waste Water Technology, Water Pollution Control, Water Management and Aquatic Pollution
  Industrial Pollution Prevention
  
• 出版者：Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
• ISSN：1614-7499

文摘

A large number of mathematical models have been developed for supporting optimization of land-use allocation; however, few of them simultaneously consider land suitability (e.g., physical features and spatial information) and various uncertainties existing in many factors (e.g., land availabilities, land demands, land-use patterns, and ecological requirements). This paper incorporates geographic information system (GIS) technology into interval-probabilistic programming (IPP) for land-use planning management (IPP-LUPM). GIS is utilized to assemble data for the aggregated land-use alternatives, and IPP is developed for tackling uncertainties presented as discrete intervals and probability distribution. Based on GIS, the suitability maps of different land users are provided by the outcomes of land suitability assessment and spatial analysis. The maximum area of every type of land use obtained from the suitability maps, as well as various objectives/constraints (i.e., land supply, land demand of socioeconomic development, future development strategies, and environmental capacity), is used as input data for the optimization of land-use areas with IPP-LUPM model. The proposed model not only considers the outcomes of land suitability evaluation (i.e., topography, ground conditions, hydrology, and spatial location) but also involves economic factors, food security, and eco-environmental constraints, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in a land-use planning management system. The case study results at Suzhou, China, demonstrate that the model can help to examine the reliability of satisfying (or risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty. Moreover, it may identify the quantitative relationship between land suitability and system benefits. Willingness to arrange the land areas based on the condition of highly suitable land will not only reduce the potential conflicts on the environmental system but also lead to a lower economic benefit. However, a strong desire to develop lower suitable land areas will bring not only a higher economic benefit but also higher risks of violating environmental and ecological constraints. The land manager should make decisions through trade-offs between economic objectives and environmental/ecological objectives.