用户名: 密码: 验证码:
The Great Depression in a Modern Mirror
详细信息    查看全文
  • 作者:Barry Eichengreen
  • 关键词:Great Depression ; Great Recession
  • 刊名:De Economist
  • 出版年:2016
  • 出版时间:March 2016
  • 年:2016
  • 卷:164
  • 期:1
  • 页码:1-17
  • 全文大小:459 KB
  • 参考文献:Accominotti, O., & Eichengreen, B. (2015). The mother of all sudden stops: Capital flows and reversals in Europe, 1919–1932. Economic History Review (forthcoming).
    Ahamed, L. (2011). Currency wars, then and now: How policymakers can avoid the perils of the 1930s. Foreign Affairs, 90, 92–103.
    Alesina, A., Perotti, R., & Tavares, J. (1998). The political economy of fiscal adjustments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring), pp. 197–266.
    Almunia, M., Benetrix, A., Eichengreen, B., O’Rourke, K., & Rua, G. (2010). From Great Depression to great credit crisis: Similarities, differences and lessons. Economic Policy, 25, 219–265.
    Auerbach, A., & Gorodnochenko, Y. (2011). Fiscal multipliers in recession and expansion. NBER Working Paper No. 17447 (September).
    Bernanke, B. (1986). Employment, hours and earnings in the depression: An analysis of eight manufacturing industries. American Economic Review, 76, 82–109.
    Bernanke, B. (2015). The courage to act: A memoir of a crisis and its aftermath. New York: W.W. Norton.
    Bernanke, B., & Harold, J. (1991). The gold standard, deflation and financial crisis in the Great Depression: An international comparison. In R. Glenn Hubbard (Ed.), Financial markets and financial crises (pp. 33–68). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
    Bi, H., Shen, W., & Yang, S.-C. (2014). Fiscal limits, external debt and fiscal policy in developing countries. IMF Working Paper WP/14/49 (March).
    Blanchard, O., & Leigh, D. (2013). Growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers. American Economic Review, 103, 117–120.CrossRef
    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2014). FOMC: Transcripts and other historical materials, 2008. Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, http://​www.​federalreserve.​gov/​monetarypolicy/​fomchistorical20​08.​htm
    Bordo, M., & Landon-Lane, J. (2010). The banking panics in the United States in the 1930s: Some lessons for today. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26, 386–509.CrossRef
    Broadberry, S. (1987). Cheap money and the housing boom in interwar Britain: An econometric appraisal. Manchester School, 55, 378–389.CrossRef
    Brown, E. C. (1956). Fiscal policy in the ‘Thirties: A Reappraisal’. American Economic Review, 46, 857–879.
    Burda, M., & Hunt, J. (2011). What explains the German labor market miracle in the Great Recession? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 42, 273–335.CrossRef
    Calomiris, C. (2010). The political lessons of depression-era banking reform. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26, 540–560.CrossRef
    Calomiris, C., Mason, J., Weidenmier, M., & Bobroff, K. (2012). The Effects on Reconstruction Finance Corporation Assistance on Michigan’s Banks’ Survival in the 1930s. NBER Working Paper No. 18427 (September).
    Cha, M. S. (2003). Did Takahashi Korekiyo rescue Japan from the Great Depression? Journal of Economic History, 63, 127–144.CrossRef
    Cohen-Setton, J., Hausman, J., & Wieland, J. (2014). Stagflation in the 1930s: Why did the French New Deal Fail? Unpublished manuscript, University of California, Berkeley; University of Michigan, Ann Arbor; and University of California, San Diego (August).
    Cole, H., & Ohanian, L. (2004). New deal policies and the persistence of the Great Depression: A general equilibrium analysis. Journal of Political Economy, 112, 779–816.CrossRef
    Collingwood, R. G. (1946). The idea of history. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
    Cooley, T., & Ohanian, L. (2010). FDR and the lessons of the depression. Wall Street Journal (27 August). http://​www.​wsj.​com/​articles/​SB10001424052748​7034615045754434​02028756986
    Crafts, N. (2013). Returning to growth: Policy lessons from history. Fiscal Studies, 34, 255–282.CrossRef
    Crafts, N., & Mills, T. (2013). Rearmament to the rescue? New estimates of the impact of ‘Keynesian’ policies in 1930s’ Britain. Journal of Economic History, 73, 1072–1104.CrossRef
    DeLong, J. B., & Summers, L. (1986). Is increased price flexibility stabilizing? American Economic Review, 76, 1031–1044.
    Dimsdale, N., & Horsewood, N. (1995). Fiscal policy and employment in interwar Britain: Some evidence from a new model. Oxford Economic Papers, 47, 369–396.
    Eggertsson, G. (2008). Great expectations and the end of the depression. American Economic Review, 98, 1476–1516.CrossRef
    Eichengreen, B. (1992). Golden fetters: The gold standard and the great depression, 1919–1939. New York: Oxford University Press.
    Eichengreen, B. (2012). Europe’s trust deficit. Project Syndicate (12 May).
    Eichengreen, B. (2013a). Currency wars: Perception and reality. Deutsche Bank Global Financial Institute (May): Frankfurt.
    Eichengreen, B. (2013b). Currency war or international policy coordination? Journal of Policy Modeling, 35, 385–486.CrossRef
    Eichengreen, B. (2015). Hall of mirrors: The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the uses - and misuses - of history. New York: Oxford University Press.
    Eichengreen, B., & Mitchener, K. (2004). The Great Depression as a credit boom gone wrong. Research in Economic History, 22, 183–237.CrossRef
    Eichengreen, B., & Sachs, J. (1985). Exchange rates and economic recovery in the 1930s. Journal of Economic History, 49, 349–465.
    Fishback, P., Flores-Lagunes, A., Horrace, W., Kantor, S., & Treber, J. (2010). The influence of the home owner’s loan corporation on housing markets during the 1930s. Review of Financial Studies, 24, 1782–1813.CrossRef
    Fishback, P., Rose, J., & Snowden, K. (2013). Well worth saving: How the new deal safeguarded homeownership. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRef
    Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. (1963). A monetary history of the United States, 1867–1960. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
    Gagnon, J., Raskin, M., Remache, J., & Sack, B. (2010). Large-scale asset purchases by the federal reserve: Did they work? Staff Report No. 441, New York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (March).
    Gartner, K. (2013). Household debt and economic recovery: Evidence from the U.S. great depression. European Historical Economic Society Working Paper No. 36 (March).
    Guajardo, J., Leigh, D., & Pescatori, A. (2014). Expansionary austerity? International evidence. Journal of the European Economic Association, 12, 949–968.CrossRef
    Hanes, C. (2013). Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: Lessons from the 1930s U.S. Unpublished manuscript, State University of New York at Binghamton (March).
    Hannah, L., & Temin, P. (2010). Long-term supply-side implications of the Great Depression. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26, 561–580.CrossRef
    Hatton, T., & Thomas, M. (2010). Labour markets in the interwar period and economic recovery in the UK and the USA. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26, 463–485.CrossRef
    Hausman, J. (2014). What was bad for GM was bad for America: The auto industry and the 1937–1938 recession. Unpublished manuscript, University of Michigan.
    Irwin, D. (2013). Gold sterilization and the recession of 1937–1938. Financial History Review, 19, 249–267.CrossRef
    Jorda, O., Schularick, M., & Taylor, A. (2014). Betting the house. NBER Working Paper No. 20771 (December).
    Kennedy, S. (2015). How the unspoken currency war threatens to be a silent killer in world markets. Bloomberg News (12 February).
    Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. London: Macmillan (2008 Atlantic Publishers Edition).
    Kindleberger, C. (1973). The world in depression, 1929–1939. Berkeley: University of California Press.
    Krithnamurthy, A., & Vissing-Jorgensen, A. (2011). The effects of quantitative easing on interest rates: Channels and implications for policy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Fall), pp. 215–265.
    Mian, A., & Sufi, A. (2014). House of debt. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
    Middleton, R. (2010). British monetary and fiscal policy in the 1930s. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26, 414–441.CrossRef
    Mishkin, F. (1978). The household balance sheet and the Great Depression. Journal of Economic History, 38, 918–937.CrossRef
    Neumann, T., Taylor, J., & Fishback, P. (2013). Comparisons of weekly hours over the past century and the importance of work sharing in the 1930s. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 103, 205–210.CrossRef
    Nurkse, R. (1944). International currency experience. Geneva: League of Nations.
    O’Rourke, K., & Taylor, A. (2013). Cross of euros. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 27, 167–191.CrossRef
    Perry, N., & Vernengo, M. (2013). What ended the Great Depression: Re-evaluating the role of fiscal policy. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 37, 1–19.CrossRef
    Reinhart, C., & Reinhart, V. (2009). When the north last headed south: Revisiting the 1930s. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Fall), pp. 251–272.
    Richardson, G. (2007). Categories and causes of bank distress in the Great Depression, 1920–1935: The illiquidity versus solvency debate revisited. Explorations in Economic History, 44, 588–607.CrossRef
    Romer, C. (1992). What ended the Great Depression? Journal of Economic History, 52, 757–784.CrossRef
    Shibamoto, M., & Shizume, M. (2014). Exchange rate adjustment, monetary policy and fiscal stimulus in Japan’s escape from the Great Depression. Explorations in Economic History, 53, 1–18.
    Stephens, H. M. (1916). Nationality and history. American Historical Review, 21, 225–236.CrossRef
    Taylor, J. E. (2009). Work-sharing during the great depression: Did the ‘President’s Reemployment Agreement’ Promote Reemployment? Economica, 76, 1–29.
    Temin, P., & Wigmore, B. (1990). The end of one big deflation. Explorations in Economic History, 27, 483–502.CrossRef
    Thomas, T. J. (1981). Aggregate demand in the United Kingdom, 1918–1945. In R. Floud & D. McCloskey (Eds.), The Economic History of Britain Since 1700 (Vol. 2, pp. 332–346). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    Thomas, M. (1983). Rearmament and economic recovery in the late 1930s. Economic History Review, 36, 551–579.CrossRef
    Tinbergen, J. (1970). Some work experiences. In T. Dalenius, G. Karlsson, & S. Malmquist (Eds.), Scientists at work. Almquist & Wicksells: Upsala.
  • 作者单位:Barry Eichengreen (1)

    1. University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
  • 刊物类别:Business and Economics
  • 刊物主题:Economics
    Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    Microeconomics
    International Economics
    Public Finance and Economics
  • 出版者:Springer Netherlands
  • ISSN:1572-9982
文摘
In this paper I ask not how scholarship on the Great Depression informed the policy response to the Great Recession, but rather how the experience of the Great Recession will inform scholarship on the Great Depression. “Every generation writes its own history of the past,” the historian H.M. Stephens of the University of California, Berkeley observed in his presidential address to the American Historical Association in 1916. In this spirit, I will ask how the current generation is likely to rewrite the history of the 1920s and 1930s given the crisis through which we just lived.

© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号

地址:北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编:100083

电话:办公室:(+86 10)66554848;文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新:66554700