Modeling demand/supply of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China during the late 1980s to 2010

详细信息    查看全文

• 作者：Xingran Liu (1) (2)
  Yanjun Shen (1)
  Ying Guo (1)
  Shuo Li (1)
  Bin Guo (3)
  
  1. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources ; Center for Agricultural Resources Research ; Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology ; CAS ; Shijiazhuang ; 050021 ; China
  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Beijing ; 100049 ; China
  3. College of Geomatics ; Shandong University of Science and Technology ; Qingdao ; 266510 ; Shandong ; China
  
• 关键词：agricultural irrigation water demand ; industrial water demand ; domestic water demand ; total water demand ; supply and demand of water resources ; arid region of northwestern China
• 刊名：Journal of Geographical Sciences
• 出版年：2015
• 出版时间：May 2015
• 年：2015
• 卷：25
• 期：5
• 页码：573-591
• 全文大小：2,544 KB
• 参考文献：1. Alcamo, J, D枚li, P, Henrichs, T (2003) Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability. Hydrological Sciences Journal 48: pp. 317-337 CrossRef
  2. Ausubel, J H, Victor, D G, Wernik, I K (1995) The environment since 1970. Consequences: The Nature and Implications of Environmental Change 1: pp. 2-15
  3. Bao, C, Fang, C L (2007) Water resources constraint force on urbanization in water deficient regions: A case study of the Hexi Corridor, arid area of NW China. Ecological Economics 62: pp. 508-517 CrossRef
  4. Bao, C, Fang, C L, Chen, F (2006) Mutual optimization of water utilization structure and industrial structure in arid inland river basins of Northwest China. Journal of Geographical Sciences 16: pp. 87-98 CrossRef
  Report on sources of arid northwest China. Advance in Earth Sciences 11: pp. 1-3
  5. Chen, Y N, Ye, Z X, Shen, Y J (2011) Desiccation of the Tarim River, Xinjiang, China, and mitigation strategy. Quaternary International 244: pp. 264-271 CrossRef
  6. Dai, S S, Li, L H, Xu, H G (2013) A system dynamics approach for water resources policy analysis in arid land: A model for Manas River Basin. Journal of Arid Land 5: pp. 118-131 CrossRef
  7. Duan, A W, Sun, J S, Liu, Y (2004) Irrigation Quota of Major Crops for Northern China. China Agricultual Science & Technology Press, Beijing
  8. Er-Raki, S, Chehbouni, A, Guemouria, N (2007) Combining FAO-56 model and ground-based remote sensing to estimate water consumptions of wheat crops in a semi-arid region. Agricultural Water Management 87: pp. 41-54 CrossRef
  9. Feng, Q, Cheng, G D, Masao, M K (2000) Trends of water resource development and utilization in arid north-west China. Environmental Geology 39: pp. 831-838 CrossRef
  10. Feng, Z M, Liu, D W (2006) A study on water resources carrying capacity in Jingjinji Region. Journal of Natural Resources 21: pp. 689-699
  11. Guo, B (2013) Analysis and prediction of water balance between supply and demand in the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin [D]. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi
  12. Guo, B, Chen, Y N, Shen, Y J (2012) Spatially explicit estimation of domestic water use in the arid region of northwestern China: 1985鈥?009. Hydrological Sciences Journal 58: pp. 162-176 CrossRef
  13. Ji, X B, Kang, E S, Chen, R S (2006) Analysis of water resources supply and demand and security of water resources development in irrigation regions of the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China. Agricultural Sciences in China 5: pp. 130-140 CrossRef
  14. Jia, S, Yang, H, Zhang, S (2006) Industrial water use Kuznets Curve: Evidence from industrialized countries and implications for developing countries. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 132: pp. 183-191 CrossRef
  15. Jon, F, Chang, H (2009) Spatial analysis of water use in Oregon, USA, 1985鈥?005. Water Resources Management 23: pp. 755-774 CrossRef
  16. Li, B F, Chen, Y N, Shi, X (2013) Temperature and precipitation changes in different environments in the arid region of northwest China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 112: pp. 589-596 CrossRef
  17. Li, W H, Chen, Z S, Li, B F (2012) Analysis of water demand and stability for oasis in Kaidu-Kongque River Basin, southern Xinjiang. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 34: pp. 1470-1477
  18. Liu, J G, Diamond, J (2005) China鈥檚 environment in a globalizing world. Nature 435: pp. 1179-1186 CrossRef
  19. Nian, Y Y, Li, X, Zhou, J (2014) Impact of land use change on water resource allocation in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China. Journal of Arid Land 6: pp. 273-286 CrossRef
  20. Oki, T, Kanae, S (2006) Global hydrological cycles and world water resources. Science 313: pp. 1068-1072 science.1128845" target="_blank" title="It opens in new window">CrossRef
  21. Piao, S L, Ciais, P, Huang, Y (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467: pp. 43-51 CrossRef
  22. Qi, H G, Chen, Y N, Li, H M (2010) Analysis of water resources based on SD model in Yanqi County. Quaternary Sciences 30: pp. 209-215
  23. RMN (Rural Migration News). 2012. Global: Population, climate [online]. / Rural Migration News, 18(3). Available from: http://migration.ucdavis.edu/rmn/more.php?id=1709_0_5_0.
  24. Shen, Y J, Chen, Y N (2010) Global perspective on hydrology, water balance, and water resources management in arid basins. Hydrological Process 24: pp. 129-135
  25. Shen, Y J, Chen, Y N, Liu, C M (2013) Ecohydrology of the inland river basins in the Northwestern Arid Region of China. Ecohydrology 6: pp. 905-908 CrossRef
  26. Shen, Y J, Li, S, Chen, Y N (2013) Estimation of regional irrigation water requirement and water supply risk in the arid region of northwestern China 1989鈥?010. Agricultural Water Management 128: pp. 55-64 CrossRef
  27. Shen, Y J, Liu, C M, Liu, M (2010) Change in pan evaporation over the past 50 years in the arid region of China. Hydrological Processes 24: pp. 225-231
  28. Shen, Y J, Oki, T, Kanae, S (2014) Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: An integrated assessment. Hydrological Sciences Journal 59: pp. 1775-1793 CrossRef
  29. Shen, Y J, Oki, T, Utsumi, N (2008) Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: Water withdrawal. Hydrological Sciences Journal 53: pp. 11-33 CrossRef
  30. Tang, Q C, Zhang, J B, Cheng, W M (2002) Prediction to water supply-demand balance for West China. Journal of Natural Resources 17: pp. 327-332
  31. Vassolo, S, D枚ll, P (2005) Global-scale gridded estimates of thermoelectric power and manufacturing water use. Water Resources Research 41: pp. W04010 CrossRef
  32. V枚r枚smarty, C J, Green, P, Salisbury, J (2000) Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science 289: pp. 284-288 science.289.5477.284" target="_blank" title="It opens in new window">CrossRef
  33. Wang, H J, Chen, Y N, Xun, S (2013) Changes in daily climate extremes in the arid area of northwestern China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 112: pp. 15-28 CrossRef
  World Development Indicators: Freshwater. World Bank, Washington DC, USA
  34. Xia, J, Chen, Y D (2001) Water problems and opportunities in the hydrological sciences in China. Hydrological Sciences Journal 46: pp. 907-921 CrossRef
  35. Xu, X B, Zhou, H P, Wang, Z (2010) Study on effective rainfall use efficiency in arid irrigation district. Water Saving Irrigation 12: pp. 44-46
  
• 刊物主题：Physical Geography; Nature Conservation; Geographical Information Systems/Cartography; Remote Sensing/Photogrammetry;
• 出版者：Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• ISSN：1861-9568

文摘

Water demand increases continuously with an increasing population and economic development. As a result, the difference between water supply and demand becomes a significant issue, especially in arid regions. To figure out the utilization of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China (ARNWC), and also to provide methodologies to predict the water use in future, three models were established in this study to calculate agricultural irrigation, industrial and domestic water use in the ARNWC from the late 1980s to 2010. Based on river discharges in the region, the supply and demand of water resources at the river basin level were analyzed. The results indicated that agricultural irrigation demand occupies more than 90% of the total water use in the ARNWC. Total water demand increased from 31.97 km3 in the late 1980s to 48.19 km3 in 2010. Most river basins in this arid region were under medium and high water stress. Severe-risk river basins, such as the Shiyang river basin and the eastern part of the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains, were found in this region. It was revealed that the water supply became critical from April to May, which was the season of the lowest water supply as determined by comparing monthly water consumption.