Seismic hazard mapping and mitigation policy development in the central USA and western China

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• 作者：Zhenming Wang ; Alice M. Orton ; Lanmin Wang ; Edward W. Woolery
• 关键词：Earthquake ; Seismic hazard assessment ; Seismic hazard mitigation ; Public policy
• 刊名：Natural Hazards
• 出版年：2016
• 出版时间：March 2016
• 年：2016
• 卷：81
• 期：1
• 页码：387-404
• 全文大小：6,576 KB
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• 作者单位：Zhenming Wang (1)
  Alice M. Orton (2)
  Lanmin Wang (3)
  Edward W. Woolery (2)
  
  1. Kentucky Geological Survey, University of Kentucky, 228 Mining and Mineral Resources Building, Lexington, KY, 40506-0107, USA
  2. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Kentucky, 101 Slone Building, Lexington, KY, 40506-0053, USA
  3. Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration, 450 Donggangxilu Ave., Lanzhou, 730000, China
  
• 刊物类别：Earth and Environmental Science
• 刊物主题：Earth sciences
  Hydrogeology
  Geophysics and Geodesy
  Geotechnical Engineering
  Civil Engineering
  Environmental Management
  
• 出版者：Springer Netherlands
• ISSN：1573-0840

文摘

Communities need sound seismic hazard maps for formulating policies such as engineering design for buildings and other structures to reduce potential earthquake losses. However, developing scientifically sound seismic hazard maps is challenging because there are large inherent uncertainties and many unknowns (or even sheer ignorance). It is critical for any seismic hazard mapping that these uncertainties be quantified and communicated clearly to engineers, policy makers, and the public. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been the most widely used method for seismic hazard mapping, the hazard maps produced from PSHA are artifacts and difficult, even impossible, to understand because PSHA is a pure computer model without a sound earth science (physics) basis and its mathematics is simply wrong. The use of PSHA hazard maps has led to overly stringent engineering design and mitigation policies in the central USA, and unsafe engineering design and other mitigation policies in western China. On the other hand, the hazard maps derived from deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) or Neo-DSHA have a clear physical and statistical meaning and are easy to understand. Deterministic (or scenario) hazard maps have been proven to be effective. Thus, deterministic hazard maps are more appropriate for engineering design and other mitigation policy considerations in the central USA and western China, as well as other areas in the world.