Climate projections of spatial variations in coastal storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast

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• 作者：Zhigang Yao ; Zuo Xue ; Ruoying He ; Xianwen Bao&#8230
• 关键词：Key wordsstorm surge ; sea surface winds ; climate change ; regional ocean
• 刊名：Journal of Ocean University of China
• 出版年：2017
• 出版时间：February 2017
• 年：2017
• 卷：16
• 期：1
• 页码：1-7
• 全文大小：
• 刊物主题：Oceanography; Meteorology;
• 出版者：Science Press
• ISSN：1993-5021
• 卷排序：16

文摘

Using statistically downscaled atmospheric forcing, we performed a numerical investigation to evaluate future climate’s impact on storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast. The focus is on the impact of climatic changes in wind pattern and surface pressure while neglecting sea level rise and other factors. We adapted the regional ocean model system (ROMS) to the study region with a mesh grid size of 7–10 km in horizontal and 18 vertical layers. The model was validated by a hindcast of the coastal sea levels in the winter of 2008. Model’s robustness was confirmed by the good agreement between model-simulated and observed sea levels at 37 tidal gages. Two 10-year forecasts, one for the IPCC Pre-Industry (PI) and the other for the A1FI scenario, were conducted. The differences in model-simulated surge heights under the two climate scenarios were analyzed. We identified three types of responses in extreme surge heights to future climate: a clear decrease in Middle Atlantic Bight, an increase in the western Gulf of Mexico, and non-significant response for the remaining area. Such spatial pattern is also consistent with previous projections of sea surface winds and ocean wave heights.