How to Optimize the Decision Making Using Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts
- 作者：Hui-Ling ChangShu-Chih YangHuiling YuanPay-Liam LinYu-Chieng LiouChia-Rong ChenWen-Ho Wang
- 会议时间：2014-10-11
- 关键词：probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) ; economic value (EV) ; ensemble prediction system (EPS) ; decision making
- 母体文献：2014年海峡两岸气象科学技术研讨会论文集
- 会议名称：2014年海峡两岸气象科学技术研讨会
- 会议地点：青岛
- 主办单位：中国气象学会
- 语种：chi
摘要
In this study, we take the 0 6 h probabilistie quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) as an example to illustrate how to 'evaluate the economic value (EV) of ensemble probabilistic forecasts (EPFs) and offer an example for users to understand how to use the EPFs to optimize their decision making.The PQPFs are generated from the ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) operated at the Central weather bureau (CWB) in Taiwan.In the EV analysis, it is assumed that users' cost and loss are explicitly known.Unfortunately, information of users' cost or loss is sometimes implicitly known.For example, farmers may wonder whether they should harvest their crops before the coming of a typhoon accompanied by heavy rainfall.Compared with normal harvesting, the action of harvesting in advance does not seem to need any cost; however, it may lead to a hidden loss since unripe crops are sold at a lower price.Furthermore, the farmers may also wonder what percentage (F, 0