What is the primary cause of the observed widespread increases in precipitation intensity

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• 作者：Run LiuShaw C.LiuRalph J.CiceroneC.J.ShiuJun LiJingli WangYuanhang Zhang
• 会议时间：2015-09-21
• 关键词：Extreme precipitation ; global warming ; aerosols ; risk of floods and droughts
• 作者单位：Run Liu,Jun Li,Yuanhang Zhang(State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control,College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871)Shaw C.Liu(Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei 11529;Department of Atmospheric Science, National Central University, Jhongli 32001)Ralph J.Cicerone(National Academy of Sciences, Washington DC 20001, USA and also at Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine)C.J.Shiu(Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei 11529)Jingli Wang(Institute of Urban Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089)
• 母体文献：2015中国科协海峡两岸青年科学家学术活动月两岸环保高层专家论坛论文集
• 会议名称：2015中国科协海峡两岸青年科学家学术活动月两岸环保高层专家论坛
• 会议地点：北京
• 主办单位：中国环境科学学会
• 语种：chi

摘要

Significant increases in precipitation intensity, as a result of increases of heavy precipitation and/or decreases of light precipitation have been observed over widespread regions of the globe.Global wanning and effects of anthropogenic aerosols have been proposed as possible causes of these changes.In this work we identify the primary cause of the increases in precipitation intensity by contrasting observed characteristics of precipitation in the tropical 10°S-10°N oceanic region to those at higher latitudes (5°N-20°N, 20°N-45°N land area) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) for 1979-2007, and a polluted region in eastern China (1955-2011).Significant increases in heavy precipitation and/or decreases in light precipitation with net increases in precipitation intensity are found in all regions examined, while amounts of total precipitation show relative small or negligible changes.Characteristics of these changes suggest that global warming rather than aerosol effects is the primary cause of the changes.