全球冰冻圈灾害高风险区:影响与态势
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摘要
20世纪70年代以来,全球增温显著,冰冻圈快速变化事件发生频率在增加,由此引发和即将引发的冰冻圈灾害危害巨大.冰冻圈不同灾种成灾机理、承灾体及其孕灾环境各异,灾害分布具有明显的空间分异特征.基于已有研究成果,较系统地阐述了冰冻圈灾害成灾机理,梳理了冰冻圈灾害类型、时间尺度、空间分异及其类型区划.在此基础上,揭示了全球冰冻圈灾害高风险区的综合影响及其态势.冰冻圈变化-冰冻圈灾害风险-冰冻圈风险管控链条关系紧密,亟需加强冰冻圈变化对社会经济系统的综合风险分析、评估和理解,以期针对性地调整未来冰冻圈灾害高风险区经济社会活动轨迹,有差别地制定冰冻圈灾害高风险区防灾减灾规划,以降低冰冻圈灾害风险和提高可持续发展能力.
The cryosphere is the part of the earth's surface where the temperature is always below freezing. Since the 1970 s, the frequency of rapid cryospheric change events has been increasing along with the significant rise of global temperature. This has or will lead to a series of cryospheric disasters with extreme damage. Disaster-formation mechanism, disasterreceptors, and environmental reactions to different types of disasters in the cryosphere have different spatial distribution patterns. The cryosphere can be divided into three major categories: Continental cryosphere, marine cryosphere, and aerial cryosphere. These depend mainly on its geographical distribution, dynamics, and thermodynamic conditions. Based on the results of past research, the present study systematically expounds the formation mechanism classification, spatial and temporal scales, and spatial differentiation of cryospheric disasters and reveals the comprehensive impact of global cryospheric disasters at high-risk areas and their trend. The results show the following.(1) Continental cryospheric disasters(e.g., avalanches, glacial lake outburst floods, freezing and thawing disasters, and glacier/snow flood/debris flow)are concentrated mainly in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Siberia, Peruvian Andes, and northern North America and have already caused considerable risk to personal safety and damage to infrastructure.(2) Marine cryospheric disasters(sea ice disasters, coastal freeze-thaw erosion, and rises in sea level) occur mainly along coastal areas of the Arctic and the lowlying areas and island countries of the world. These disasters mainly affect navigation safety and ports, coastal/offshore facilities, and homeland security.(3) Aerial cryospheric disasters, especially snowstorms and rain and snow freezing disasters take place in the northeastern United States, Europe, East Asia, and China, mainly affecting transportation,aviation, and agriculture. Although the frequency of the cryospheric disaster is low, the scope and impact are very large.Cryospheric change, risk of cryospheric disaster, and the management thereof are closely related. It is urgently necessary to strengthen the understanding and assessment of the cryosphere change and its impact on the socio-economic system and integrated risk analysis. Specifically, we must adjust economic and social activities in areas at high risk of global cryospheric disasters and develop strategies for prevention and mitigation of cryospheric disasters and so reduce risk and improve resilience and sustainability.
The cryosphere is the part of the earth's surface where the temperature is always below freezing. Since the 1970 s, the frequency of rapid cryospheric change events has been increasing along with the significant rise of global temperature. This has or will lead to a series of cryospheric disasters with extreme damage. Disaster-formation mechanism, disasterreceptors, and environmental reactions to different types of disasters in the cryosphere have different spatial distribution patterns. The cryosphere can be divided into three major categories: Continental cryosphere, marine cryosphere, and aerial cryosphere. These depend mainly on its geographical distribution, dynamics, and thermodynamic conditions. Based on the results of past research, the present study systematically expounds the formation mechanism classification, spatial and temporal scales, and spatial differentiation of cryospheric disasters and reveals the comprehensive impact of global cryospheric disasters at high-risk areas and their trend. The results show the following.(1) Continental cryospheric disasters(e.g., avalanches, glacial lake outburst floods, freezing and thawing disasters, and glacier/snow flood/debris flow)are concentrated mainly in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Siberia, Peruvian Andes, and northern North America and have already caused considerable risk to personal safety and damage to infrastructure.(2) Marine cryospheric disasters(sea ice disasters, coastal freeze-thaw erosion, and rises in sea level) occur mainly along coastal areas of the Arctic and the lowlying areas and island countries of the world. These disasters mainly affect navigation safety and ports, coastal/offshore facilities, and homeland security.(3) Aerial cryospheric disasters, especially snowstorms and rain and snow freezing disasters take place in the northeastern United States, Europe, East Asia, and China, mainly affecting transportation,aviation, and agriculture. Although the frequency of the cryospheric disaster is low, the scope and impact are very large.Cryospheric change, risk of cryospheric disaster, and the management thereof are closely related. It is urgently necessary to strengthen the understanding and assessment of the cryosphere change and its impact on the socio-economic system and integrated risk analysis. Specifically, we must adjust economic and social activities in areas at high risk of global cryospheric disasters and develop strategies for prevention and mitigation of cryospheric disasters and so reduce risk and improve resilience and sustainability.
引文
1 Qin D H,Yao T D,Ding Y J,et al.Introduction to Cryosphere Science(in Chinese).Beijing:Science Press,2018[秦大河,姚檀栋,丁永建,等.冰冻圈科学概论.北京:科学出版社,2018]
2 IPCC.Climate change 2013:The physical science basis.In:Stocker T F,Qin D H,Plattner G K,et al,eds.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge and New York:Cambridge University Press,2013
3 Kraaijenbrink P D A,Bierkens M F P,Lutz A F,et al.Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5°C on Asia’s glaciers.Nature,2017,549:257-260
4 Shiklomanov N,Streletskiy D,Nelson F.Northern hemisphere component of the Global Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring(CALM)Program.In:Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Permafrost.Russia:Salekhard Press,2012.377-382
5 Harris C.Climate change,mountain permafrost degradation and geotechnical hazard.In:Huber U M,Bugmann H K M,Reasoner M A,eds.Global Change and Mountain Regions:An Overview of Current Knowledge,Advances in Global Change Research.Netherlands:Springer Publisher,2005.215-224
6 Haeberli W,Whiteman C,Shroder J F.Snow and Ice-Related Hazards,Risks,and Disasters.Amsterdam:Elsevier,2015
7 Fell R.Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk.Can Geotech J,1994,31:261-272
8 Zimmerman M,Mani P,Romang H.Magnitude-frequency aspects of alpine debris flows.Eclogae Geol Helv,1997,90:415-420
9 Xiao C D,Wen J H.Classification and geographical distribution of cryosphere.In:Qin D H,Yao T D,Ding Y J,eds.Introduction to Cryosphere Science(Revised Edition)(in Chinese).Beijing:Science Press,2018.25-60[效存德,温家洪.冰冻圈的分类和地理分布.见:秦大河,姚檀栋,丁永建,编.冰冻圈科学概论(修订版).北京:科学出版社,2018.25-60]
10 Mukherjee K,Bolch T,Goerlich F,et al.Surge-type glaciers in the Tien Shan(Central Asia).Arctic Antarctic Alpine Res,2017,49:147-171
11 RGI Consortium.Randolph Glacier Inventory-A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines:Version 6.0.Technical Report,Global Land Ice Measurements from Space.Digital Media,Colorado,USA.2017
12 Wei Y,Wang S,Fang Y,et al.Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.Glob Planet Change,2017,157:139-152
13 Wang S J,Zhou L Y,Wei Y Q.Integrated risk assessment of snow disaster(SD)over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(QTP).Geomat Nat Haz Risk,2019,doi:10.1080/19475705.2018.1543211
14 Nelson F E,Anisimov O A,Shiklomanov N I.Climate change and hazard zonation in the circum-Arctic permafrost regions.Nat Hazards,2002,26:203-225
15 Kubat I,Babaei M H,Sayed M.Quantifying ice pressure conditions and predicting the risk of ship besetting.In:10th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice 2012.Alberta:National Research Council Canada,2012.106-113
16 Wang S J,Ren J W.Review of avalanche disaster research at home and abroad(in Chinese).Progr Geogr,2012,31:1529-1536[王世金,任贾文.国内外雪崩灾害研究综述.地理科学进展,2012,31:1529-1536]
17 Ballesteros-Cánovas J A,Trappmann D,Madrigal-González J,et al.Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,2018,115:201716913
18 Fernández-Giménez M E,Batkhishig B,Batbuyan B.Cross-boundary and cross-level dynamics increase vulnerability to severe winter disasters(dzud)in Mongolia.Glob Environ Change,2012,22:836-851
19 Callaghan T V,Johansson M,Brown R D,et al.The changing face of Arctic snow cover:A synthesis of observed and projected changes.AMBIO,2011,40:17-31
20 Carrivick J L,Tweed F S.A global assessment of the societal impacts of glacier outburst floods.Glob Planet Change,2016,144:1-16
21 Shen Y P,Wang G Y,Ding Y J,et al.Evolution of the metzbach iceberg and glacier flood disaster in the Aksu River Basin in the Tianshan Mountains in the past 100 years(in Chinese).J Glaciol Geocryol,2009,31:993-1000[沈永平,王国亚,丁永建,等.百年来天山阿克苏河流域麦茨巴赫冰湖演化与冰川洪水灾害.冰川冻土,2009,31:993-1000]
22 Wang S,Zhou L.Glacial lake outburst flood disasters and integrated risk management in China.Int J Disaster Risk Sci,2017,8:493-497
23 Wu Q B,Niu F J.Changes of permafrost and engineering stability in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(in Chinese).Chin Sci Bull,2013,13:10-15[吴青柏,牛富俊.青藏高原多年冻土变化与工程稳定性.科学通报,2013,13:10-15]
24 Romanovsky V E,Smith S L,Christiansen H H.Permafrost thermal state in the polar Northern hemisphere during the international polar year2007-2009:A synthesis.Permafrost Periglac Process,2007,21:106-116
25 Streletskiy D,Anisimov O,Vasiliev A.Permafrost degradation.In:Snow and Ice-Related Hazards,Risks and Disasters.Amsterdam:Elsevier,2015.303-344
26 Guo D,Wang H.CMIP5 permafrost degradation projection:A comparison among different regions.J Geophys Res Atmos,2016,121:4499-4517
27 Streletskiy D A,Shiklomanov N I,Hatleberg E.Infrastructure and a changing climate in the Russian Arctic:A geographic impact assessment.In:Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Permafrost,Salekhard,Russia,2012.407-412
28 Xu X M,Wu Q B,Zhang Z Q.Response of the thickness of permafrost active layer on climate change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(in Chinese).JGlaciol Geocryol,2017,39:1-8[徐晓明,吴青柏,张中琼.青藏高原多年冻土活动层厚度对气候变化的响应.冰川冻土,2017,39:1-8]
29 Shroder J F,Ellis J T,Sherman D J.Coastal and Marine Hazards,Risks,and Disasters.Amsterdam:Elsevier,2015
30 Wu B,Zhang R,Wang B,et al.On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese summer rainfall.Geophys Res Lett,2009,36:666-678
31 Wu B,Su J,D’Arrigo R.Patterns of Asian winter climate variability and links to Arctic sea ice.J Clim,2015,28:6841-6858
32 Regehr E V,Lunn N J,Amstrup S C,et al.Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay.JWildlife Manage,2007,71:2673-2683
33 Durner G M,Douglas D C,Nielson R M,et al.Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models.Ecol Monogr,2009,79:25-58
34 Jones G P,Russ G R,Sale P F,et al.Theme section on“larval connectivity,resilience and the future of coral reefs”.Coral Reefs,2009,28:303-305
35 Lantuit H,Overduin P P,Couture N,et al.The Arctic Coastal Dynamics database:A new classification scheme and statistics on Arctic permafrost coastlines.Estuaries Coasts,2012,35:383-400
36 Pickering M D,Horsburgh K J,Blundell J R,et al.The impact of future sea-level rise on the global tides.Cont Shelf Res,2017,142:50-68
37 Wahl T,Haigh I D,Nicholls R J,et al.Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis.Nat Commun,2017,8:16075
38 Muis S,Verlaan M,Winsemius H C,et al.A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels.Nat Commun,2016,7:11969
39 Moore J C,Gladstone R,Zwinger T,et al.Geoengineer polar glaciers to slow sea-level rise.Nature,2018,555:303-305
40 Solomon S,Garcia R R,Ravishankara A R.On the role of iodine in ozone deplsetion.J Geophys Res,1994,99:20491-20499
41 Serreze M C,Walsh J E,Chapin III F S,et al.Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment.Clim Change,2000,46:159-207
42 Mao S J,Li D L.Comprehensive evaluation of low temperature rain and snow freezing in Southern China based on meteorological elements(in Chinese).J Glaciol Geocryol,2015,37:14-26[毛淑君,李栋梁.基于气象要素的我国南方低温雨雪冰冻综合评估.冰川冻土,2015,37:14-26]
43 Zhong X,Zhang T,Zheng L,et al.Spatiotemporal variability of snow depth across the Eurasian continent from 1966 to 2012.Cryosphere,2016,12:227-245
44 Qin D H.China National Assessment Report on Risk Management and Adaptation of Climate Extremes and Disasters(Defined Edition)(in Chinese).Beijing:Science Press,2018[秦大河.中国极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理与适应国家评估报告(精华版).北京:科学出版社,2015]
2 IPCC.Climate change 2013:The physical science basis.In:Stocker T F,Qin D H,Plattner G K,et al,eds.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge and New York:Cambridge University Press,2013
3 Kraaijenbrink P D A,Bierkens M F P,Lutz A F,et al.Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5°C on Asia’s glaciers.Nature,2017,549:257-260
4 Shiklomanov N,Streletskiy D,Nelson F.Northern hemisphere component of the Global Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring(CALM)Program.In:Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Permafrost.Russia:Salekhard Press,2012.377-382
5 Harris C.Climate change,mountain permafrost degradation and geotechnical hazard.In:Huber U M,Bugmann H K M,Reasoner M A,eds.Global Change and Mountain Regions:An Overview of Current Knowledge,Advances in Global Change Research.Netherlands:Springer Publisher,2005.215-224
6 Haeberli W,Whiteman C,Shroder J F.Snow and Ice-Related Hazards,Risks,and Disasters.Amsterdam:Elsevier,2015
7 Fell R.Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk.Can Geotech J,1994,31:261-272
8 Zimmerman M,Mani P,Romang H.Magnitude-frequency aspects of alpine debris flows.Eclogae Geol Helv,1997,90:415-420
9 Xiao C D,Wen J H.Classification and geographical distribution of cryosphere.In:Qin D H,Yao T D,Ding Y J,eds.Introduction to Cryosphere Science(Revised Edition)(in Chinese).Beijing:Science Press,2018.25-60[效存德,温家洪.冰冻圈的分类和地理分布.见:秦大河,姚檀栋,丁永建,编.冰冻圈科学概论(修订版).北京:科学出版社,2018.25-60]
10 Mukherjee K,Bolch T,Goerlich F,et al.Surge-type glaciers in the Tien Shan(Central Asia).Arctic Antarctic Alpine Res,2017,49:147-171
11 RGI Consortium.Randolph Glacier Inventory-A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines:Version 6.0.Technical Report,Global Land Ice Measurements from Space.Digital Media,Colorado,USA.2017
12 Wei Y,Wang S,Fang Y,et al.Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.Glob Planet Change,2017,157:139-152
13 Wang S J,Zhou L Y,Wei Y Q.Integrated risk assessment of snow disaster(SD)over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(QTP).Geomat Nat Haz Risk,2019,doi:10.1080/19475705.2018.1543211
14 Nelson F E,Anisimov O A,Shiklomanov N I.Climate change and hazard zonation in the circum-Arctic permafrost regions.Nat Hazards,2002,26:203-225
15 Kubat I,Babaei M H,Sayed M.Quantifying ice pressure conditions and predicting the risk of ship besetting.In:10th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice 2012.Alberta:National Research Council Canada,2012.106-113
16 Wang S J,Ren J W.Review of avalanche disaster research at home and abroad(in Chinese).Progr Geogr,2012,31:1529-1536[王世金,任贾文.国内外雪崩灾害研究综述.地理科学进展,2012,31:1529-1536]
17 Ballesteros-Cánovas J A,Trappmann D,Madrigal-González J,et al.Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,2018,115:201716913
18 Fernández-Giménez M E,Batkhishig B,Batbuyan B.Cross-boundary and cross-level dynamics increase vulnerability to severe winter disasters(dzud)in Mongolia.Glob Environ Change,2012,22:836-851
19 Callaghan T V,Johansson M,Brown R D,et al.The changing face of Arctic snow cover:A synthesis of observed and projected changes.AMBIO,2011,40:17-31
20 Carrivick J L,Tweed F S.A global assessment of the societal impacts of glacier outburst floods.Glob Planet Change,2016,144:1-16
21 Shen Y P,Wang G Y,Ding Y J,et al.Evolution of the metzbach iceberg and glacier flood disaster in the Aksu River Basin in the Tianshan Mountains in the past 100 years(in Chinese).J Glaciol Geocryol,2009,31:993-1000[沈永平,王国亚,丁永建,等.百年来天山阿克苏河流域麦茨巴赫冰湖演化与冰川洪水灾害.冰川冻土,2009,31:993-1000]
22 Wang S,Zhou L.Glacial lake outburst flood disasters and integrated risk management in China.Int J Disaster Risk Sci,2017,8:493-497
23 Wu Q B,Niu F J.Changes of permafrost and engineering stability in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(in Chinese).Chin Sci Bull,2013,13:10-15[吴青柏,牛富俊.青藏高原多年冻土变化与工程稳定性.科学通报,2013,13:10-15]
24 Romanovsky V E,Smith S L,Christiansen H H.Permafrost thermal state in the polar Northern hemisphere during the international polar year2007-2009:A synthesis.Permafrost Periglac Process,2007,21:106-116
25 Streletskiy D,Anisimov O,Vasiliev A.Permafrost degradation.In:Snow and Ice-Related Hazards,Risks and Disasters.Amsterdam:Elsevier,2015.303-344
26 Guo D,Wang H.CMIP5 permafrost degradation projection:A comparison among different regions.J Geophys Res Atmos,2016,121:4499-4517
27 Streletskiy D A,Shiklomanov N I,Hatleberg E.Infrastructure and a changing climate in the Russian Arctic:A geographic impact assessment.In:Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Permafrost,Salekhard,Russia,2012.407-412
28 Xu X M,Wu Q B,Zhang Z Q.Response of the thickness of permafrost active layer on climate change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(in Chinese).JGlaciol Geocryol,2017,39:1-8[徐晓明,吴青柏,张中琼.青藏高原多年冻土活动层厚度对气候变化的响应.冰川冻土,2017,39:1-8]
29 Shroder J F,Ellis J T,Sherman D J.Coastal and Marine Hazards,Risks,and Disasters.Amsterdam:Elsevier,2015
30 Wu B,Zhang R,Wang B,et al.On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentration and Chinese summer rainfall.Geophys Res Lett,2009,36:666-678
31 Wu B,Su J,D’Arrigo R.Patterns of Asian winter climate variability and links to Arctic sea ice.J Clim,2015,28:6841-6858
32 Regehr E V,Lunn N J,Amstrup S C,et al.Effects of earlier sea ice breakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay.JWildlife Manage,2007,71:2673-2683
33 Durner G M,Douglas D C,Nielson R M,et al.Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models.Ecol Monogr,2009,79:25-58
34 Jones G P,Russ G R,Sale P F,et al.Theme section on“larval connectivity,resilience and the future of coral reefs”.Coral Reefs,2009,28:303-305
35 Lantuit H,Overduin P P,Couture N,et al.The Arctic Coastal Dynamics database:A new classification scheme and statistics on Arctic permafrost coastlines.Estuaries Coasts,2012,35:383-400
36 Pickering M D,Horsburgh K J,Blundell J R,et al.The impact of future sea-level rise on the global tides.Cont Shelf Res,2017,142:50-68
37 Wahl T,Haigh I D,Nicholls R J,et al.Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis.Nat Commun,2017,8:16075
38 Muis S,Verlaan M,Winsemius H C,et al.A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels.Nat Commun,2016,7:11969
39 Moore J C,Gladstone R,Zwinger T,et al.Geoengineer polar glaciers to slow sea-level rise.Nature,2018,555:303-305
40 Solomon S,Garcia R R,Ravishankara A R.On the role of iodine in ozone deplsetion.J Geophys Res,1994,99:20491-20499
41 Serreze M C,Walsh J E,Chapin III F S,et al.Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment.Clim Change,2000,46:159-207
42 Mao S J,Li D L.Comprehensive evaluation of low temperature rain and snow freezing in Southern China based on meteorological elements(in Chinese).J Glaciol Geocryol,2015,37:14-26[毛淑君,李栋梁.基于气象要素的我国南方低温雨雪冰冻综合评估.冰川冻土,2015,37:14-26]
43 Zhong X,Zhang T,Zheng L,et al.Spatiotemporal variability of snow depth across the Eurasian continent from 1966 to 2012.Cryosphere,2016,12:227-245
44 Qin D H.China National Assessment Report on Risk Management and Adaptation of Climate Extremes and Disasters(Defined Edition)(in Chinese).Beijing:Science Press,2018[秦大河.中国极端天气气候事件和灾害风险管理与适应国家评估报告(精华版).北京:科学出版社,2015]