环境规制对中国制造业结构优化的影响——技术创新的中介效应
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摘要
采用2005-2016年中国内地30个省市面板数据,综合运用系统GMM模型和固定效应模型,探讨正式、非正式环境规制对制造业结构优化的影响。从直接影响看,正式环境规制能促进制造业结构高级化但未促进合理化,而非正式环境规制对制造业结构合理化和高级化均产生促进作用。进一步以技术创新为中介变量的分析发现,两种环境规制均能通过技术创新的中介效应对制造业结构合理化和高级化产生正向影响,但对制造业结构高级化的影响存在区域差异性:正式环境规制对东部地区制造业结构高级化产生显著正向影响,对中部、东北地区无显著影响,对西部地区产生显著负向影响;非正式环境规制对中部、西部地区制造业结构高级化产生显著正向影响,对东部、东北地区无显著影响。最后,基于实证结果,从两种环境规制互补、环境规制与技术创新互动、区域差异化环境规制等角度,就如何实施环境规制、倒逼制造业结构优化提出若干建议。
This paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2016, and comprehensively applies the system GMM model and fixed effect model to explore the effect of formal and informal environmental regulations on the optimization of manufacturing structure. From the perspective of direct influence, formal environmental regulation can promote the upgrading of manufacturing structure but can not promote its rationalization, and informal environmental regulation can promote both the rationalization and the upgrading of manufacturing structure. From the further analysis of using technological innovation as the mediating variable, both formal environmental regulation and informal environmental regulation can positively affect the rationalization and the upgrading of manufacturing structure through the mediating effect of technological innovation, but there are regional differences in the impact of the upgrading of manufacturing structure: formal environmental regulation has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of manufacturing structure in the eastern region, has no significant impact in the central and northeastern regions, and has a significant negative impact in the western region; informal environmental regulation has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of manufacturing structure in the central and western regions and has no significant impact in the eastern and northeastern regions. Finally, based on the empirical results, from the perspectives of the complementary between the two environmental regulations, the interactivity between environmental regulation and technological innovation, and different regional differentiation regulations, some countermeasures on how to implement more effective environmental regulation to force manufacturing structure optimization are proposed.
This paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2016, and comprehensively applies the system GMM model and fixed effect model to explore the effect of formal and informal environmental regulations on the optimization of manufacturing structure. From the perspective of direct influence, formal environmental regulation can promote the upgrading of manufacturing structure but can not promote its rationalization, and informal environmental regulation can promote both the rationalization and the upgrading of manufacturing structure. From the further analysis of using technological innovation as the mediating variable, both formal environmental regulation and informal environmental regulation can positively affect the rationalization and the upgrading of manufacturing structure through the mediating effect of technological innovation, but there are regional differences in the impact of the upgrading of manufacturing structure: formal environmental regulation has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of manufacturing structure in the eastern region, has no significant impact in the central and northeastern regions, and has a significant negative impact in the western region; informal environmental regulation has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of manufacturing structure in the central and western regions and has no significant impact in the eastern and northeastern regions. Finally, based on the empirical results, from the perspectives of the complementary between the two environmental regulations, the interactivity between environmental regulation and technological innovation, and different regional differentiation regulations, some countermeasures on how to implement more effective environmental regulation to force manufacturing structure optimization are proposed.
引文
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[13] 傅元海,叶祥松,王展祥.制造业结构变迁与经济增长效率提高[J].经济研究,2016, 51(8):86-100.
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[16] 蔡玉蓉,汪慧玲.创新投入对产业结构升级的影响机制研究——基于分位数回归的分析[J].经济问题探索,2018(1): 138-146.
[17] 时乐乐,赵军.环境规制、技术创新与产业结构升级[J].科研管理,2018,39(1): 119-125.
[18] 邱兆林,王业辉.行政垄断约束下环境规制对工业生态效率的影响——基于动态空间杜宾模型与门槛效应的检验[J].产业经济研究,2018(5): 114-126.
[19] 聂国卿,郭晓东.环境规制对中国制造业创新转型发展的影响[J].经济地理,2018, 38(7): 110-116.
[20] 谢荣辉.环境规制、引致创新与中国工业绿色生产率提升[J].产业经济研究,2017(2): 38-48.
[21] 卫平,余奕杉.环境规制对制造业产业结构升级的影响——基于省级动态面板数据的系统GMM分析[J].经济问题探索,2017(9): 144-152.
[22] 钟茂初,李梦洁,杜威剑.环境规制能否倒逼产业结构调整——基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015, 25(8): 107-115.
[23] HOU J, TEO T S H, ZHOU F, et al. Does industrial green transformation successfully facilitate a decrease in carbon intensity in China? an environmental regulation perspective[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 184: 1060-1071.
[24] 干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011, 46(5): 4-16+31.
[25] 唐晓华,刘相锋.能源强度与中国制造业产业结构优化实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016, 26(10): 78-85.
[26] 李贤珠.中韩产业结构高度化的比较分析——以两国制造业为例[J].世界经济研究,2010(10): 81-86+89.
[27] 沈能.环境效率、行业异质性与最优规制强度——中国工业行业面板数据的非线性检验[J].中国工业经济,2012(3): 56-68.
[28] 刘家悦,谢靖.环境规制与制造业出口质量升级——基于要素投入结构异质性的视角[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018, 28(2): 158-167.
[29] 陆旸.环境规制影响了污染密集型商品的贸易比较优势吗[J].经济研究,2009, 44(4): 28-40.
[30] 李梦洁,杜威剑.环境规制与就业的双重红利适用于中国现阶段吗?——基于省际面板数据的经验分析[J].经济科学,2014(4): 14-26.
[2] 童健,刘伟,薛景.环境规制、要素投入结构与工业行业转型升级[J].经济研究,2016, 51(7): 43-57.
[3] 张江雪,蔡宁,杨陈.环境规制对中国工业绿色增长指数的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015, 25(1): 24-31.
[4] 原毅军,谢荣辉.环境规制的产业结构调整效应研究——基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验[J].中国工业经济,2014(8): 57-69.
[5] KNELLER R, MANDERSON E. Environmental regulations and innovation activity in UK manufacturing industries[J]. Resource and Energy Economics, 2012, 34(2): 211-235.
[6] ZHAO X, SUN B. The influence of Chinese environmental regulation on corporation innovation and competitiveness[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2016, 112(4): 1528-1536.
[7] 余东华,胡亚男.环境规制趋紧阻碍中国制造业创新能力提升吗?——基于“波特假说”的再检验[J].产业经济研究,2016(2): 11-20.
[8] 蒋伏心,王竹君,白俊红.环境规制对技术创新影响的双重效应——基于江苏制造业动态面板数据的实证研究[J].中国工业经济,2013(7): 44-55.
[9] 臧传琴,张菡.环境规制技术创新效应的空间差异——基于2000—2013年中国面板数据的实证分析[J].宏观经济研究,2015(11): 72-83+141.
[10] KLEMETSEN M E, BYB B, RAKNERUD A. Can direct regulations spur innovations in environmental technologies? a study on firm-level patenting[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2016, 120(2): 338-371.
[11] RAMANTHAN R, HE Q, BLACK A, et al. Environmental regulations, innovation and firm performance: a revisit of the Porter hypothesis[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 155(2): 79-92.
[12] 王海兵,杨蕙馨.创新驱动与现代产业发展体系——基于我国省际面板数据的实证分析[J].经济学:季刊,2016, 15(4): 1351-1386.
[13] 傅元海,叶祥松,王展祥.制造业结构变迁与经济增长效率提高[J].经济研究,2016, 51(8):86-100.
[14] THOMPSON M. Social capital, innovation and economic growth[J]. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 2018, 73: 46-52.
[15] 陶长琪,周璇.要素集聚下技术创新与产业结构优化升级的非线性和溢出效应研究[J].当代财经,2016(1): 83-94.
[16] 蔡玉蓉,汪慧玲.创新投入对产业结构升级的影响机制研究——基于分位数回归的分析[J].经济问题探索,2018(1): 138-146.
[17] 时乐乐,赵军.环境规制、技术创新与产业结构升级[J].科研管理,2018,39(1): 119-125.
[18] 邱兆林,王业辉.行政垄断约束下环境规制对工业生态效率的影响——基于动态空间杜宾模型与门槛效应的检验[J].产业经济研究,2018(5): 114-126.
[19] 聂国卿,郭晓东.环境规制对中国制造业创新转型发展的影响[J].经济地理,2018, 38(7): 110-116.
[20] 谢荣辉.环境规制、引致创新与中国工业绿色生产率提升[J].产业经济研究,2017(2): 38-48.
[21] 卫平,余奕杉.环境规制对制造业产业结构升级的影响——基于省级动态面板数据的系统GMM分析[J].经济问题探索,2017(9): 144-152.
[22] 钟茂初,李梦洁,杜威剑.环境规制能否倒逼产业结构调整——基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015, 25(8): 107-115.
[23] HOU J, TEO T S H, ZHOU F, et al. Does industrial green transformation successfully facilitate a decrease in carbon intensity in China? an environmental regulation perspective[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018, 184: 1060-1071.
[24] 干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011, 46(5): 4-16+31.
[25] 唐晓华,刘相锋.能源强度与中国制造业产业结构优化实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016, 26(10): 78-85.
[26] 李贤珠.中韩产业结构高度化的比较分析——以两国制造业为例[J].世界经济研究,2010(10): 81-86+89.
[27] 沈能.环境效率、行业异质性与最优规制强度——中国工业行业面板数据的非线性检验[J].中国工业经济,2012(3): 56-68.
[28] 刘家悦,谢靖.环境规制与制造业出口质量升级——基于要素投入结构异质性的视角[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018, 28(2): 158-167.
[29] 陆旸.环境规制影响了污染密集型商品的贸易比较优势吗[J].经济研究,2009, 44(4): 28-40.
[30] 李梦洁,杜威剑.环境规制与就业的双重红利适用于中国现阶段吗?——基于省际面板数据的经验分析[J].经济科学,2014(4): 14-26.